论文标题
南南迁移的新趋势：共同19和移民执法的经济影响
New trends in South-South migration: The economic impact of COVID-19 and immigration enforcement
论文作者
论文摘要
本文评估了大流行和执法对2017 - 2020年期间危地马拉人移民的影响。根据对墨西哥南部边界的迁移调查，在此期间，危地马拉的交叉数量下降了10％。然而，与孩子一起旅行的男性成年人的移民穿越人数近30％。这种新趋势的部分原因是最近减少了从美国驱逐出境的儿童人数。为了减少从美国被驱逐到危地马拉市的儿童人数减少，成年男性从危地马拉前往墨西哥的成年男性人数增加了近14个。男性成年人与孩子一起旅行。但是，危地马拉在大流行期间经历的急性经济冲击也驱动了与孩子一起旅行的移民的激增。在此期间，被分析的危地马拉市政当局中的空气污染下降了4％，人均夜灯下降了15％，凶杀率下降了40％。与往年不同，移民逃离贫困而不是暴力。我们的发现表明，仅仅减少暴力行为就不足以减少中美洲的移民流动，而是需要经济复苏。
This paper evaluates the impact of the pandemic and enforcement at the US and Mexican borders on the emigration of Guatemalans during 2017-2020. During this period, the number of crossings from Guatemala fell by 10%, according to the Survey of Migration to the Southern Border of Mexico. Yet, there was a rise of nearly 30% in the number of emigration crossings of male adults travelling with their children. This new trend was partly driven by the recent reduction in the number of children deported from the US. For a one-point reduction in the number of children deported from the US to Guatemalan municipalities, there was an increase of nearly 14 in the number of crossings made by adult males leaving from Guatemala for Mexico; and nearly 0.5 additional crossings made by male adults travelling with their children. However, the surge of emigrants travelling with their children was also driven by the acute economic shock that Guatemala experienced during the pandemic. During this period, air pollution in the analysed Guatemalan municipalities fell by 4%, night light per capita fell by 15%, and homicide rates fell by 40%. Unlike in previous years, emigrants are fleeing poverty rather than violence. Our findings suggest that a reduction in violence alone will not be sufficient to reduce emigration flows from Central America, but that economic recovery is needed.
