论文标题

双分辨率降水预测的参数后处理

Parametric post-processing of dual-resolution precipitation forecasts

论文作者

Szabó, Marianna, Gascón, Estíbaliz, Baran, Sándor

论文摘要

最近,所有主要的天气中心都发布了整体预测,甚至涵盖相同领域的整体规模和空间分辨率都不同。这两个参数高度决定了预测的预测技能和计算成本。在过去的几年中,升级欧洲中范围天气预测中心(ECMWF)集成预测系统的计划从单一的预测分辨率为9 km,并具有5​​1-MES的合奏,并具有18 km的分辨率,并进行了18 km的分辨率,该预测诱导了对加工和加工后构造的预测的广泛研究。 我们研究了通过双分辨率的24h降水积累集合预测在欧洲,并在各种预测范围内,研究了统计后处理的统计后处理方法,研究了统计后处理的统计后处理方法,研究了统计后处理的预测性能。作为高分辨率,考虑了50名成员的ECMWF合奏,并以200人组成的低分辨率(29公里网格)实验预测进行扩展。研究的双分辨率组合由这两个预测合奏的(可能为空的)子集组成,其计算成本相等,相当于运营50-MET的ECMWF合奏的成本。 我们的案例研究验证了,与原始集成组合相比,EMOS后处理可以显着提高预测技能,并且各种双分辨率组合之间的差异降低到非显着的水平。此外,半核训练的CSG EMOS能够完全赶上最先进的分位数映射,并提供有效的替代方案,而无需确定分数图所必需的其他历史数据。

Recently, all major weather centres issue ensemble forecasts which even covering the same domain differ both in the ensemble size and spatial resolution. These two parameters highly determine both the forecast skill of the prediction and the computation cost. In the last few years, the plans of upgrading the configuration of the Integrated Forecast System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) from a single forecast with 9 km resolution and a 51-member ensemble with 18 km resolution induced an extensive study of the forecast skill of both raw and post-processed dual-resolution predictions comprising ensemble members of different horizontal resolutions. We investigate the predictive performance of the censored shifted gamma (CSG) ensemble model output statistic (EMOS) approach for statistical post-processing with the help of dual-resolution 24h precipitation accumulation ensemble forecasts over Europe with various forecast horizons. As high-resolution, the operational 50-member ECMWF ensemble is considered, which is extended with a 200-member low-resolution (29-km grid) experimental forecast. The investigated dual-resolution combinations consist of (possibly empty) subsets of these two forecast ensembles with equal computational cost, being equivalent to the cost of the operational 50-member ECMWF ensemble. Our case study verifies that, compared with the raw ensemble combinations, EMOS post-processing results in a significant improvement in forecast skill and the differences between the various dual-resolution combinations are reduced to a non-significant level. Moreover, the semi-locally trained CSG EMOS is fully able to catch up with the state-of-the-art quantile mapping and provides an efficient alternative without requiring additional historical data essential in determining the quantile maps.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源