论文标题
在估计气候变化对显着波高100年回报值的影响时的不确定性
Uncertainties in estimating the effect of climate change on 100-year return value for significant wave height
论文作者
论文摘要
估计气候对未来海洋风暴严重程度的影响会受到大型不确定性的困扰，但是对于离岸结构的安全设计和操作，如果可用的数据，需要对气候影响的最佳估计。我们探讨了随着时间的推移，从7种代表性CMIP5 GCMS的WaveThatchIII模型的输出以及FIO-ESM v2.0 CMIP6 GCM的估计值估计值的可变性，对于马达加斯加和澳大利亚南部的地区的fio-esm v2.0 CMIP6 GCM的变异性。使用贝叶斯推理对阈值和阻止最大值的非平稳性极值分析提供了回报值随时间的函数的后验估计；提供MATLAB软件。来自不同GCM的回报值估计之间存在很大的差异，并且每个社区内的经度和纬度都有很大的变化。这些不确定性来源往往大于典型的建模选择（例如，锅的阈值选择，或BM的块长度）。然而，由于那里存在大量风暴，因此谨慎的阈值和块长度是马达加斯加以东的关键。 CMIP6 GCM的长700年工业前控制（PICONTROL）输出允许量化返回值的明显固有可变性，这是时间的函数。
Estimating climate effects on future ocean storm severity is plagued by large uncertainties, yet for safe design and operation of offshore structures, best possible estimates of climate effects are required given available data. We explore the variability in estimates of 100-year return value of significant wave height (Hs) over time, for output of WAVEWATCHIII models from 7 representative CMIP5 GCMs, and the FIO-ESM v2.0 CMIP6 GCM, for neighbourhoods of locations east of Madagascar and south of Australia. Non-stationary extreme value analysis of peaks-over-threshold and block maxima using Bayesian inference provide posterior estimates of return values as a function of time; MATLAB software is provided. There is large variation between return value estimates from different GCMs, and with longitude and latitude within each neighbourhood. These sources of uncertainty tend to be larger than that due to typical modelling choices (such as choice of threshold for POT, or block length for BM). However, careful threshold and block length are critical east of Madagascar, because of the presence of a mixed population of storms there. The long 700-year pre-industrial control (piControl) output of the CMIP6 GCM allows quantification of the apparent inherent variability in return value as a function of time.
