论文标题

人寿保险中的马尔可夫总体模型:通过EM算法进行估算

Aggregate Markov models in life insurance: estimation via the EM algorithm

论文作者

Ahmad, Jamaal, Bladt, Mogens

论文摘要

在本文中,我们考虑了统计估算时间均匀的马尔可夫模型。与马尔可夫连锁店相对应的未汇总模型通常在多国家人寿保险中使用,以建模被保险人的生物识别状态。通过将微晶格汇总到每个生物识别状态,我们能够在生物识别态的过渡之间以及它们的占用分布之间对依赖性进行建模。这通常可以进行非马克维亚建模。由于仅观察到宏观的路径,因此我们开发了一种期望最大化(EM)算法,以获得微观水平过渡强度的最大似然估计。特别注意半马克维亚病例,称为重置特性,这导致了简化的估计程序,在该过程中,可以将不均匀相相型分布的EM算法用作构件。我们提供了后者的数值示例与三态残疾模型中的分段恒定过渡速率结合使用,并与时间为偶然的半马尔可夫模型进行了模拟数据。提供了我们的拟合与更经典的基于GLM的拟合以及真实和经验分布的比较,以将我们的模型与现有模型及其工具联系起来。

In this paper, we consider statistical estimation of time-inhomogeneous aggregate Markov models. Unaggregated models, which corresponds to Markov chains, are commonly used in multi-state life insurance to model the biometric states of an insured. By aggregating microstates to each biometric state, we are able to model dependencies between transitions of the biometric states as well as the distribution of occupancy in these. This allows for non--Markovian modelling in general. Since only paths of the macrostates are observed, we develop an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of transition intensities on the micro level. Special attention is given to a semi-Markovian case, known as the reset property, which leads to simplified estimation procedures where EM algorithms for inhomogeneous phase-type distributions can be used as building blocks. We provide a numerical example of the latter in combination with piecewise constant transition rates in a three-state disability model with data simulated from a time-inhomogeneous semi-Markov model. Comparisons of our fits with more classic GLM-based fits as well as true and empirical distributions are provided to relate our model with existing models and their tools.

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