论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

PAC-Bayesian Treatment Allocation Under Budget Constraints

论文作者

Pellatt, Daniel F.

论文摘要

本文考虑了决策者面临一般预算或资源限制时,考虑了治疗作业规则的估计。利用Pac-Bayesian框架,我们提出了新的治疗分配规则,以允许灵活的治疗结果,治疗成本和预算限制。例如,当不处理成本超过亚种群的治疗费用时,约束设置允许节省成本。它还适合更简单的设置,例如数量约束,并且不需要结果响应和成本即可具有相同的测量单位。重要的是,该方法解释了预算或资源限制可能排除所有可能受益的东西,成本可能因个人特征而有所不同的情况以及对治疗费用的不确定性而有所不同的方法。尽管有命名法,但我们的理论分析研究了所提出的规则的频繁属性。对于通常采用预算拟合经验福利的随机规则,我们在较大样本中最大限度地提高了政策,我们为目标人群成本和尖锐的甲骨文型不平等得出了非反应概括的范围,以将规则的福利遗憾与相关预算类别中的最佳政策进行比较。与密切相关的,非传统的模型聚合治疗分配规则显示出继承理想的属性。

This paper considers the estimation of treatment assignment rules when the policy maker faces a general budget or resource constraint. Utilizing the PAC-Bayesian framework, we propose new treatment assignment rules that allow for flexible notions of treatment outcome, treatment cost, and a budget constraint. For example, the constraint setting allows for cost-savings, when the costs of non-treatment exceed those of treatment for a subpopulation, to be factored into the budget. It also accommodates simpler settings, such as quantity constraints, and doesn't require outcome responses and costs to have the same unit of measurement. Importantly, the approach accounts for settings where budget or resource limitations may preclude treating all that can benefit, where costs may vary with individual characteristics, and where there may be uncertainty regarding the cost of treatment rules of interest. Despite the nomenclature, our theoretical analysis examines frequentist properties of the proposed rules. For stochastic rules that typically approach budget-penalized empirical welfare maximizing policies in larger samples, we derive non-asymptotic generalization bounds for the target population costs and sharp oracle-type inequalities that compare the rules' welfare regret to that of optimal policies in relevant budget categories. A closely related, non-stochastic, model aggregation treatment assignment rule is shown to inherit desirable attributes.

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