论文标题

数据驱动的预测和评估对智能区域的能源过渡政策的未来影响

Data-Driven Prediction and Evaluation on Future Impact of Energy Transition Policies in Smart Regions

论文作者

Yang, Chunmeng, Bu, Siqi, Fan, Yi, Wan, Wayne Xinwei, Wang, Ruoheng, Foley, Aoife

论文摘要

为了满足公认的碳中立目标,在过去的十年中,全球都市地区实施了促进可持续能源的产生和使用的政策。然而,及时制定和评估这些政策的可用性差距,因为可持续的能源容量和产生是基于当地经济繁荣和社会绿色野心的各种因素动态决定的。我们开发了一个新型的数据驱动平台,以应用人工神经网络和技术扩散模型来预测和评估能源转变策略。在能源过渡的独特阶段,使用新加坡,伦敦和加利福尼亚作为对大都市地区的案例研究,我们表明,除了预测可再生能源的产生和容量外,该平台在制定未来的政策方案方面还特别有力。我们建议将拟议方法的全球应用于智能区域的未来可持续能源过渡。

To meet widely recognised carbon neutrality targets, over the last decade metropolitan regions around the world have implemented policies to promote the generation and use of sustainable energy. Nevertheless, there is an availability gap in formulating and evaluating these policies in a timely manner, since sustainable energy capacity and generation are dynamically determined by various factors along dimensions based on local economic prosperity and societal green ambitions. We develop a novel data-driven platform to predict and evaluate energy transition policies by applying an artificial neural network and a technology diffusion model. Using Singapore, London, and California as case studies of metropolitan regions at distinctive stages of energy transition, we show that in addition to forecasting renewable energy generation and capacity, the platform is particularly powerful in formulating future policy scenarios. We recommend global application of the proposed methodology to future sustainable energy transition in smart regions.

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