论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Dynamics of Fecal Coliform Bacteria along Canada's Coast
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具，其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而，其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间，然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用，该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明，使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器，即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程，也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后，我们表明，当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声，甚至控制方程变得不准确时，我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测，从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
The vast coastline provides Canada with a flourishing seafood industry including bivalve shellfish production. To sustain a healthy bivalve molluscan shellfish production, the Canadian Shellfish Sanitation Program was established to monitor the health of shellfish harvesting habitats, and fecal coliform bacteria data have been collected at nearly 15,000 marine sample sites across six coastal provinces in Canada since 1979. We applied Functional Principal Component Analysis and subsequent correlation analyses to find annual variation patterns of bacteria levels at sites in each province. The overall magnitude and the seasonality of fecal contamination were modelled by functional principal component one and two, respectively. The amplitude was related to human and warm-blooded animal activities; the seasonality was strongly correlated with river discharge driven by precipitation and snow melt in British Columbia, but such correlation in provinces along the Atlantic coast could not be properly evaluated due to lack of data during winter.
