论文标题
贝叶斯估计动态认知模型的神经超级巨星
Neural Superstatistics for Bayesian Estimation of Dynamic Cognitive Models
论文作者
论文摘要
认知的数学模型通常是无记忆的,并且忽略了其参数的潜在波动。但是,人类认知本质上是动态的。因此,我们建议以时间维度增强机械认知模型,并从超级巨星的角度估算所产生的动态。这样的模型需要在低级观察模型和高级过渡模型之间进行层次结构。观察模型描述了系统的局部行为,并且过渡模型指定了观察模型的参数如何随着时间的推移而发展。为了克服超级巨星模型的复杂性引起的估计挑战,我们开发并验证了基于模拟的贝叶斯推论的基于模拟的深度学习方法,该方法可以恢复时间变化和时间变化的参数。我们首先根据两个现有的框架进行基准测试,以估算时间变化参数。然后,我们应用我们的方法将扩散决策模型的动态版本拟合到人类响应时间数据的长时间序列。我们的结果表明,深度学习方法在捕获模型的时间动态方面非常有效。此外,我们表明静态或均匀参数的错误假设将隐藏重要的时间信息。
Mathematical models of cognition are often memoryless and ignore potential fluctuations of their parameters. However, human cognition is inherently dynamic. Thus, we propose to augment mechanistic cognitive models with a temporal dimension and estimate the resulting dynamics from a superstatistics perspective. Such a model entails a hierarchy between a low-level observation model and a high-level transition model. The observation model describes the local behavior of a system, and the transition model specifies how the parameters of the observation model evolve over time. To overcome the estimation challenges resulting from the complexity of superstatistical models, we develop and validate a simulation-based deep learning method for Bayesian inference, which can recover both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. We first benchmark our method against two existing frameworks capable of estimating time-varying parameters. We then apply our method to fit a dynamic version of the diffusion decision model to long time series of human response times data. Our results show that the deep learning approach is very efficient in capturing the temporal dynamics of the model. Furthermore, we show that the erroneous assumption of static or homogeneous parameters will hide important temporal information.