论文标题
迈向地震事件的影响和恢复美国西部电网的模型
Toward Models of Impact and Recovery of the US Western Grid from Earthquake Events
论文作者
论文摘要
Cascadia俯冲带（CSZ）地震将对美国北部西海岸的众多生命线和基础设施造成广泛破坏。介绍的研究的目的是对Cascadia俯冲区地震对美国西部电网的影响和随后的恢复进行自下而上的估计，以补充和增强迄今为止提供的专家意见估计。该范围仅限于考虑对电力系统模型的实用工具变电站设备组件的摇动损坏。该分析利用了变电站电力系统资产的损伤和恢复概率模型，以及用于建模连通性的图形技术以及蒙特卡洛准稳态稳态稳态功率流解决方案。结果表明，对初始损坏和负载损失的保守估计约为4,000兆瓦，恢复估计为230天。
A Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake will cause widespread damage to numerous lifelines and infrastructure along the northern US west coast. The goal of the presented research is to provide a bottom up estimate of the impact on and subsequent recovery of a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake on the US western grid to supplement and enhance the expert opinion estimates provided to date. The scope is limited to consideration of shaking damage to utility substation equipment components of a power system model. The analysis utilizes probabilistic models of damage and recovery for substation power system assets, along with graph techniques for modeling connectivity, and Monte Carlo quasi steady state power flow solutions. The results show that a conservative estimate of the initial damage and loss of load is approximately 4,000 MW, with a recovery estimate of 230 days.
