论文标题
CVR基线估计的迭代双向梯度提升方法
An Iterative Bidirectional Gradient Boosting Approach for CVR Baseline Estimation
论文作者
论文摘要
本文介绍了一种新型的迭代双向梯度增强模型(IBI-GBM),用于估计降低保护电压的基线(CVR)程序。与许多现有方法相反,我们将CVR基线估计视为缺失的数据检索问题。该方法涉及将载荷及其相应的温度轮廓分为三个时期:前CVR,CVR和CVR。为了恢复CVR期间缺失的负载配置文件,该方法采用了三步过程。首先,使用前CVR之前的数据作为输入执行前通用GBM。随后,使用CVR后期的数据应用向后通用的GBM。考虑到预测准确性得出的预估算重量,仅保留了两个恢复的载荷轮廓,并保留了最左侧和最右边的重点。然后将新恢复的点作为后续迭代的输入包括。此迭代过程一直持续到CVR期间的原始负载数据完全恢复为止。我们使用实际的智能电表和监督控制和数据获取(SCADA)数据开发IBI-GBM。我们的结果表明,IBI-GBM在各种数据分辨率和不同季节中表现出强大的性能,并且通过降低归一化根平方误差(NRMSE)的1-2%来胜过现有方法。
This paper presents a novel Iterative Bidirectional Gradient Boosting Model (IBi-GBM) for estimating the baseline of Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) programs. In contrast to many existing methods, we treat CVR baseline estimation as a missing data retrieval problem. The approach involves dividing the load and its corresponding temperature profiles into three periods: pre-CVR, CVR, and post-CVR. To restore the missing load profile during the CVR period, the method employs a three-step process. First, a forward-pass GBM is executed using data from the pre-CVR period as inputs. Subsequently, a backward-pass GBM is applied using data from the post-CVR period. The two restored load profiles are reconciled, considering pre-calculated weights derived from forecasting accuracy, and only the leftmost and rightmost points are retained. The newly restored points are then included as inputs for the subsequent iteration. This iterative procedure continues until the original load data in the CVR period is fully restored. We develop IBi-GBM using actual smart meter and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data. Our results demonstrate that IBi-GBM exhibits robust performance across various data resolutions and in different seasons and outperforms existing methods by achieving a 1-2% reduction in normalized Root Mean Square Error (nRMSE).