论文标题

当前和近期AI作为潜在的存在风险因素

Current and Near-Term AI as a Potential Existential Risk Factor

论文作者

Bucknall, Benjamin S., Dori-Hacohen, Shiri

论文摘要

有大量且不断增长的证据和文学探索人工智能(AI)技术对整个社会,政治和人类的影响。单独的平行工作已经探索了人类的存在风险,包括但不限于非对齐的人工通用智能(AGI)的风险。在本文中,我们认为当前和近期人工智能技术有可能通过充当中间风险因素来促进存在风险的观念,并且这种潜力不仅限于不一致的AGI场景。我们提出这样的假设,即AI的某些已经记录的影响可以充当存在的风险因素,从而放大了先前确定的存在风险来源的可能性。此外,即使在没有人工通用智能的情况下,未来十年的未来发展也有可能严重加剧这些危险因素。我们的主要贡献是对潜在的AI风险因素以及它们之间的因果关系的(非排斥)的解释,重点是AI如何影响电力动态和信息安全。该博览会表明,存在从AI系统到没有以假设未来AI能力为前提的生存风险的因果途径。

There is a substantial and ever-growing corpus of evidence and literature exploring the impacts of Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies on society, politics, and humanity as a whole. A separate, parallel body of work has explored existential risks to humanity, including but not limited to that stemming from unaligned Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). In this paper, we problematise the notion that current and near-term artificial intelligence technologies have the potential to contribute to existential risk by acting as intermediate risk factors, and that this potential is not limited to the unaligned AGI scenario. We propose the hypothesis that certain already-documented effects of AI can act as existential risk factors, magnifying the likelihood of previously identified sources of existential risk. Moreover, future developments in the coming decade hold the potential to significantly exacerbate these risk factors, even in the absence of artificial general intelligence. Our main contribution is a (non-exhaustive) exposition of potential AI risk factors and the causal relationships between them, focusing on how AI can affect power dynamics and information security. This exposition demonstrates that there exist causal pathways from AI systems to existential risks that do not presuppose hypothetical future AI capabilities.

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