论文标题
在道路货运中规划路线最小化后勤成本和事故风险
Planning routes in road freight minimizing logistical costs and accident risks
论文作者
论文摘要
车辆路线问题(VRP)在整个历史上都广泛研究了,作为通过最小化距离来优化路线的一种方式,而VRP风险问题的关注较少,这对于提高运输安全性,降低事故成本并提高交付可靠性至关重要。通过这种方式,本文旨在支持决策者计划在考虑物流成本和安全性的道路货运公司的路线上。开发了一种基于统计数据的分析方法,在该方法中,使用蒙特卡洛模拟的官方政府数据发生事故事件和货物保险公司的数据来估算路线的风险成本。采用了电容的车辆路由问题(CVRP),并通过改变特定的安全水平系数和使用更安全的路线生成的模型来最大程度地减少物流和风险成本,从而将风险成本降低了约18%。每条路线的事故概率和风险成本表示为预期的值,本文的主要贡献是该方法支持决策标记的方法,以选择考虑安全和物流成本的路线,并成为任何VRP模型的简单且适应性的方法。此外,KNIME Analytics平台还用于估计事故概率,并简化数据探索,分析,可视化和解释。
The Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) has been widely studied throughout its history as a way of optimizing routes by minimizing distances, and the issue of risk in VRP has been received less attention, which is essential to increase transport safety, to reduce accident costs and to improve delivery reliability. In this way, this paper aims to support decision makers to plan routes for a road freight company considering both, i.e. logistics cost and safety. An analytical approach based on statistics was developed in which official government data of accidents occurrences and data from cargo insurance companies were used to estimate the risk cost of routes using the Monte Carlo simulation. The Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem (CVRP) was employed and logistics and risk costs were minimized by varying a specific safety level coefficient and the model generated solutions with safer routes, reducing risk cost by up to approximately 18%. The accidents probabilities and risk costs of each route represented values as expected and the main contributions of this paper is the applicability of the approach to support decision markers to choose routes considering safety and logistics costs, and to be a simple and adaptable methodology for any VRP model. In addition Knime Analytics Platform was also used to estimate the accidents probabilities and to simplify data exploration, analysis, visualization and interpretation.