论文标题

美国墨西哥天然气贸易及其在墨西哥的区域经济影响不断增长

The Growing US-Mexico Natural Gas Trade and Its Regional Economic Impacts in Mexico

论文作者

Wang, Haoying, Rivera, Rafael Garduno

论文摘要

随着墨西哥最近政府的变化,国家能源政策的波动引起了投资者和公众的广泛关注。辩论集中在墨西哥对美国的能源依赖以及墨西哥的能源发展如何前进。这项研究的目的是两个方面。我们首先回顾了墨西哥最近的能源改革的历史和背景。该研究的重点是量化墨西哥不断增长的美国墨西哥天然气贸易的州级地区经济影响。我们检查数量效应(进口量的影响)和价格效应(天然气价格变化的影响)。我们的经验分析采用了固定效应回归模型和仪器变量(IV)估计方法来解决空间异质性以及与天然气进口相关的潜在内生性。数量效应分析表明,进口在非矿业领域具有统计学上显着的积极就业影响。然而,对采矿部门的影响并不重要。从美国进口的国际天然气,州级平均雇佣影响是每百万MCF的127个工作岗位。价格效应分析表明,采矿部门价格上涨对统计学上显着的积极就业影响。天然气价格(2015年比索)的天然气价格(1.82 PESO/GJ)的一百分点增加,导致州一级采矿就业的平均增长率为140(OR 2.38%)。我们还探讨了我们发现对墨西哥能源政策,贸易政策和能源安全的影响。

With the recent administration change in Mexico, the fluctuations in national energy policy have generated widespread concerns among investors and the public. The debate centers around Mexico's energy dependence on the US and how Mexico's energy development should move forward. The goal of this study is two-fold. We first review the history and background of the recent energy reforms in Mexico. The focus of the study is on quantifying the state-level regional economic impact of the growing US-Mexico natural gas trade in Mexico. We examine both the quantity effect (impact of import volume) and the price effect (impact of natural gas price changes). Our empirical analysis adopts a fixed-effects regression model and the instrumental variables (IV) estimation approach to address spatial heterogeneities and the potential endogeneity associated with natural gas import. The quantity effect analysis suggests a statistically significant positive employment impact of imports in non-mining sectors. The impact in the mining sector, however, is insignificant. The state-level average (non-mining) employment impact is 127 jobs per million MCFs of natural gas imported from the US. The price effect analysis suggests a statistically significant positive employment impact of price increases in the mining sector. A one-percentage increase in natural gas price (1.82 Pesos/GJ, in 2015 Peso) leads to an average state-level mining employment increase of 140 (or 2.38%). We also explored the implications of our findings for Mexico's energy policy, trade policy, and energy security.

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