论文标题

Promotheus:一个端到端的机器学习框架,用于优化在线时尚电子商务中

Promotheus: An End-to-End Machine Learning Framework for Optimizing Markdown in Online Fashion E-commerce

论文作者

Loh, Eleanor, Khandelwal, Jalaj, Regan, Brian, Little, Duncan A.

论文摘要

管理折扣促销活动(“ Markdown”)是经营电子商务业务的重要组成部分,这里的效率低下可能会大大阻碍零售商的盈利能力。解决此问题的传统方法在很大程度上取决于价格弹性建模。但是,价格弹性建模的部分信息性质,以及保护盈利能力的不可谈判的责任,意味着机器学习从业人员必须经常经历巨大的时间来定义衡量离线模型质量的策略。面对这一点,许多零售商依靠基于规则的方法,因此可以通过机器学习来捕获的盈利能力的显着提高。在本文中,我们介绍了两个新颖的端到端降价管理系统,以优化零售商旅程的不同阶段的标记。第一个系统“ ITHAX”制定了无需估算的理性供应端定价策略,并且可以用作“冷启动”解决方案,以收集降压数据,同时维持收入控制。第二个系统“ Prosotheus”为价格弹性提供了一个完整的降价优化的框架。我们详细描述了特定的建模和验证程序,这些过程在我们的经验中对于建立在现实世界中稳健性能的系统至关重要。与我们经验丰富的运营团队在受控的在线测试中做出的决策相比,这两种降级系统都具有卓越的盈利能力,相对于手动策略,改善了86%(Promotheus)和79%(ITHAX)。这些系统已被部署以在ASOS.com上管理Markdown,并且可以在各种零售电子商务环境中进行价格优化,以优化这两个系统。

Managing discount promotional events ("markdown") is a significant part of running an e-commerce business, and inefficiencies here can significantly hamper a retailer's profitability. Traditional approaches for tackling this problem rely heavily on price elasticity modelling. However, the partial information nature of price elasticity modelling, together with the non-negotiable responsibility for protecting profitability, mean that machine learning practitioners must often go through great lengths to define strategies for measuring offline model quality. In the face of this, many retailers fall back on rule-based methods, thus forgoing significant gains in profitability that can be captured by machine learning. In this paper, we introduce two novel end-to-end markdown management systems for optimising markdown at different stages of a retailer's journey. The first system, "Ithax", enacts a rational supply-side pricing strategy without demand estimation, and can be usefully deployed as a "cold start" solution to collect markdown data while maintaining revenue control. The second system, "Promotheus", presents a full framework for markdown optimization with price elasticity. We describe in detail the specific modelling and validation procedures that, within our experience, have been crucial to building a system that performs robustly in the real world. Both markdown systems achieve superior profitability compared to decisions made by our experienced operations teams in a controlled online test, with improvements of 86% (Promotheus) and 79% (Ithax) relative to manual strategies. These systems have been deployed to manage markdown at ASOS.com, and both systems can be fruitfully deployed for price optimization across a wide variety of retail e-commerce settings.

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