论文标题
学习多元时间序列的进化和多尺度图结构预测
Learning the Evolutionary and Multi-scale Graph Structure for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting
论文作者
论文摘要
最近的研究表明,在将图神经网络应用于多变量时间序列预测中,其中时间序列的相互作用被描述为图形结构,并且变量表示为图节点。沿着这一行,现有方法通常假定确定图神经网络的聚合方式的图形结构(或邻接矩阵)是通过定义或自学学习固定的。但是,变量的相互作用在实际情况下可以是动态的和进化的。此外,如果在不同的时间尺度上观察到时间序列的相互作用序列的相互作用大不相同。为了为图神经网络配备灵活且实用的图结构,在本文中,我们研究了如何对时间序列的进化和多尺度相互作用进行建模。特别是,我们首先提供与扩张的卷积配合的层次图结构,以捕获时间序列之间的比例特定相关性。然后,以经常性的方式构建了一系列的邻接矩阵,以表示每一层不断发展的相关性。此外,提供了一个统一的神经网络,以整合上述组件以获得最终预测。这样,我们可以同时捕获成对的相关性和时间依赖性。最后,对单步和多步骤预测任务的实验证明了我们方法比最新方法的优越性。
Recent studies have shown great promise in applying graph neural networks for multivariate time series forecasting, where the interactions of time series are described as a graph structure and the variables are represented as the graph nodes. Along this line, existing methods usually assume that the graph structure (or the adjacency matrix), which determines the aggregation manner of graph neural network, is fixed either by definition or self-learning. However, the interactions of variables can be dynamic and evolutionary in real-world scenarios. Furthermore, the interactions of time series are quite different if they are observed at different time scales. To equip the graph neural network with a flexible and practical graph structure, in this paper, we investigate how to model the evolutionary and multi-scale interactions of time series. In particular, we first provide a hierarchical graph structure cooperated with the dilated convolution to capture the scale-specific correlations among time series. Then, a series of adjacency matrices are constructed under a recurrent manner to represent the evolving correlations at each layer. Moreover, a unified neural network is provided to integrate the components above to get the final prediction. In this way, we can capture the pair-wise correlations and temporal dependency simultaneously. Finally, experiments on both single-step and multi-step forecasting tasks demonstrate the superiority of our method over the state-of-the-art approaches.