论文标题

不受欢迎的框架:重新思考因果秩序而无需估计因果效应

The Amenability Framework: Rethinking Causal Ordering Without Estimating Causal Effects

论文作者

Fernández-Loría, Carlos, Loría, Jorge

论文摘要

当我们无法估计干预效果时,我们应该优先考虑干预措施?在许多应用领域(例如广告,客户保留和行为推动)中,优先级是由估计结果概率而不是因果效应的预测模型指导的。本文研究了这些预测(得分)何时可以通过其干预效应有效地对个人进行排名,尤其是当直接效应估计是不可行的或不可靠的时候。我们提出了一个基于舒适性的概念框架 - 个人的潜在倾向会受到干预的影响 - 并正式化预测分数可以作为有效委托的条件。即使分数没有直接估计效果,这些条件使用非毒物得分进行干预优先次序证明了合理的依据。我们进一步表明,在合理的假设下,预测模型可以通过干预效应对个人进行排名的因果效应估计量。广告环境中的经验证据支持我们的理论发现,表明预测建模可以比效果估计提供更强大的靶向方法。我们的框架表明,重点的转变 - 从估计效果到推断谁是适应的 - 作为一种实际且理论上的策略,用于确定资源受限环境中的干预措施。

Who should we prioritize for intervention when we cannot estimate intervention effects? In many applied domains -- such as advertising, customer retention, and behavioral nudging -- prioritization is guided by predictive models that estimate outcome probabilities rather than causal effects. This paper investigates when these predictions (scores) can effectively rank individuals by their intervention effects, particularly when direct effect estimation is infeasible or unreliable. We propose a conceptual framework based on amenability -- an individual's latent proclivity to be influenced by an intervention -- and formalize conditions under which predictive scores serve as effective proxies for amenability. These conditions justify using non-causal scores for intervention prioritization, even when the scores do not directly estimate effects. We further show that, under plausible assumptions, predictive models can outperform causal effect estimators in ranking individuals by intervention effects. Empirical evidence from an advertising context supports our theoretical findings, demonstrating that predictive modeling can offer a more robust approach to targeting than effect estimation. Our framework suggests a shift in focus -- from estimating effects to inferring who is amenable -- as a practical and theoretically grounded strategy for prioritizing interventions in resource-constrained environments.

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