论文标题
基于代理的基于地区选举的模拟
Agent-based Simulation of District-based Elections
论文作者
论文摘要
在基于地区的选举中,选举人在各自的地区投票。在每个地区,最高票的政党赢得了理事机构中相应的席位。选举结果基于不同政党赢得的席位数量。在该系统中,即使不同各方获得的选票总数保持不变,各地区的选民地点也可能会严重影响选举结果。如果他们的支持者在空间上分发,那么一个不太受欢迎的派对可能最终会赢得更多的席位。这是由于各种地区和社会影响对个人选民的各种影响而发生的,这些选民调节了他们的投票选择。在本文中,我们探讨了基于地区选举的基于代理的模型,我们将每个选举人视为代理人,并尝试使用概率分布来代表他们的社会和地理属性和政治倾向。该模型可用于通过蒙特卡洛采样来模拟选举结果。这些模型使我们能够探索选举设置可能结果的完整空间,尽管还可以将其校准为实际的选举结果,以获得适当的参数值。我们使用近似贝叶斯计算(ABC)框架来估计模型参数。我们表明,我们的模型可以重现印度和美国举行的选举结果,也可以产生反事实。
In district-based elections, electors cast votes in their respective districts. In each district, the party with maximum votes wins the corresponding seat in the governing body. The election result is based on the number of seats won by different parties. In this system, locations of electors across the districts may severely affect the election result even if the total number of votes obtained by different parties remains unchanged. A less popular party may end up winning more seats if their supporters are suitably distributed spatially. This happens due to various regional and social influences on individual voters which modulate their voting choice. In this paper, we explore agent-based models for district-based elections, where we consider each elector as an agent, and try to represent their social and geographical attributes and political inclinations using probability distributions. This model can be used to simulate election results by Monte Carlo sampling. The models allow us to explore the full space of possible outcomes of an electoral setting, though they can also be calibrated to actual election results for suitable values of parameters. We use Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework to estimate model parameters. We show that our model can reproduce the results of elections held in India and USA, and can also produce counterfactual scenarios.