论文标题

与不完整的行程观测值的递归路线选择模型的估计

Estimation of Recursive Route Choice Models with Incomplete Trip Observations

论文作者

Mai, Tien, Bui, The Viet, Nguyen, Quoc Phong, Le, Tho V.

论文摘要

这项工作涉及递归路线选择模型的估计,即行程观测结果不完整,即观测值中存在未连接的链接(或节点)。处理此问题的直接方法将是棘手的,因为通常不可能在真实网络中列举所有路径(或节点)之间的所有路径。我们利用了一种期望最大化(EM)方法,该方法允许通过在观测值中进行两步取样缺失的段并解决最大似然估计问题来处理缺失数据。此外,观察到EM方法会很昂贵,我们提出了一种新的估计方法,基于这样的想法,即可以通过求解线性方程的系统来精确地计算出未连接的链接观察的选择概率。我们进一步设计了一种称为分解组分(DC)的新算法,有助于减少要解决的线性方程式系统数量并加快估计的速度。我们使用来自真实网络的数据集比较了我们提出的算法与某些标准基线,并表明DC算法在恢复观测值中恢复缺失的信息方面表现优于其他方法。我们的方法与文献中提出的大多数递归路线选择模型一起使用,包括递归logit,嵌套递归logit或打折的递归模型。

This work concerns the estimation of recursive route choice models in the situation that the trip observations are incomplete, i.e., there are unconnected links (or nodes) in the observations. A direct approach to handle this issue would be intractable because enumerating all paths between unconnected links (or nodes) in a real network is typically not possible. We exploit an expectation-maximization (EM) method that allows to deal with the missing-data issue by alternatively performing two steps of sampling the missing segments in the observations and solving maximum likelihood estimation problems. Moreover, observing that the EM method would be expensive, we propose a new estimation method based on the idea that the choice probabilities of unconnected link observations can be exactly computed by solving systems of linear equations. We further design a new algorithm, called as decomposition-composition (DC), that helps reduce the number of systems of linear equations to be solved and speed up the estimation. We compare our proposed algorithms with some standard baselines using a dataset from a real network and show that the DC algorithm outperforms the other approaches in recovering missing information in the observations. Our methods work with most of the recursive route choice models proposed in the literature, including the recursive logit, nested recursive logit, or discounted recursive models.

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