论文标题
概率自回旋神经网络,以进行准确的远程预测
Probabilistic AutoRegressive Neural Networks for Accurate Long-range Forecasting
论文作者
论文摘要
预测时间序列数据是研究的关键领域,其应用程序从股票价格到早期流行预测。尽管已经提出了许多统计和机器学习方法,但现实生活的预测问题通常需要混合解决方案,以弥合经典预测方法和现代神经网络模型。在这项研究中,我们介绍了能够处理复杂的时间序列数据的概率自回归神经网络(PARNN),这些数据表现出非平稳性,非线性,非季节性,远距离依赖性和混乱模式。 PARN是通过使用自回归的集成运动平均值(ARIMA)反馈误差来改善自回归神经网络(ARNN)来构建的,结合了这两个模型的解释性,可伸缩性和“白色盒子样”预测行为。值得注意的是,Parnn模型通过预测间隔提供了不确定性量化,将其与先进的深度学习工具区分开来。通过全面的计算实验,我们评估了PARN对标准统计,机器学习和深度学习模型的性能,包括变压器,NBEATS和DEEPAR。从宏观经济学,旅游,流行病学和其他领域的各种现实世界数据集用于短期,中期和长期预测评估。我们的结果表明,Parnn在各种预测范围内的优越性,超过了最新的预测者。拟议的PARNN模型提供了一种有价值的混合解决方案,以进行准确的远程预测。通过有效捕获时间序列数据中存在的复杂性,它在准确性和可靠性方面优于现有方法。通过预测间隔量化不确定性的能力进一步增强了模型在决策过程中的有用性。
Forecasting time series data is a critical area of research with applications spanning from stock prices to early epidemic prediction. While numerous statistical and machine learning methods have been proposed, real-life prediction problems often require hybrid solutions that bridge classical forecasting approaches and modern neural network models. In this study, we introduce the Probabilistic AutoRegressive Neural Networks (PARNN), capable of handling complex time series data exhibiting non-stationarity, nonlinearity, non-seasonality, long-range dependence, and chaotic patterns. PARNN is constructed by improving autoregressive neural networks (ARNN) using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) feedback error, combining the explainability, scalability, and "white-box-like" prediction behavior of both models. Notably, the PARNN model provides uncertainty quantification through prediction intervals, setting it apart from advanced deep learning tools. Through comprehensive computational experiments, we evaluate the performance of PARNN against standard statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models, including Transformers, NBeats, and DeepAR. Diverse real-world datasets from macroeconomics, tourism, epidemiology, and other domains are employed for short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecasting evaluations. Our results demonstrate the superiority of PARNN across various forecast horizons, surpassing the state-of-the-art forecasters. The proposed PARNN model offers a valuable hybrid solution for accurate long-range forecasting. By effectively capturing the complexities present in time series data, it outperforms existing methods in terms of accuracy and reliability. The ability to quantify uncertainty through prediction intervals further enhances the model's usefulness in decision-making processes.