论文标题
全球发展合作的演变：用分层随机模型对援助流的分析
Evolution of global development cooperation: An analysis of aid flows with hierarchical stochastic block models
论文作者
论文摘要
尽管对发展合作的制度和规范方面有很大的学术关注，但其在全球层面展开的纵向动态很少得到研究。为了关注援助，我们研究了援助流动所引起的整体发展的全球发展合作结构。我们将1970年至2013年作为一系列网络的捐助者和接收者之间的年度援助流动，我们将分层随机块模型应用于广泛的援助流数据，不仅涵盖了主要经合组织主要捐助者的援助行为，还涵盖了包括中国在内的其他新兴捐助者的援助行为。尽管这些年来，尽管有相当多的外部扩张和援助关系的内部多样化，但该分析却发现了援助网络的时间持续结构。一方面，后者包括有限数量的主要捐助者，这些捐助者拥有深远的资源，另一方面是大量贫困但全球良好的接收者。结果对“援助改革”的反复努力在实质上改变全球援助流程模式中的效力提出了怀疑。
Despite considerable scholarly attention on the institutional and normative aspects of development cooperation, its longitudinal dynamics unfolding at the global level have rarely been investigated. Focusing on aid, we examine the evolving global structure of development cooperation induced by aid flows in its entirety. Representing annual aid flows between donors and recipients from 1970 to 2013 as a series of networks, we apply hierarchical stochastic block models to extensive aid-flow data that cover not only the aid behavior of the major OECD donors but also that of other emerging donors, including China. Despite a considerable degree of external expansion and internal diversification of aid relations over the years, the analysis has uncovered a temporally persistent structure of aid networks. The latter comprises, on the one hand, a limited number of major donors with far-reaching resources and, on the other hand, a large number of mostly poor but globally well-connected recipients. The results cast doubt on the efficacy of recurrent efforts for "aid reform" in substantially changing the global aid flow pattern.
