论文标题
经济状态分类和投资组合优化,并应用于滞水环境
Economic state classification and portfolio optimisation with application to stagflationary environments
论文作者
论文摘要
本文以当前对潜在滞水的全球经济环境的恐惧进行了激励,该论文使用了新的,最近引入的数学技术来研究与国家通货膨胀(CPI),经济增长(GDP)和股本指数行为有关的多元时间序列。我们首先要评估各种经济现象之间的时间演变,并通过“经济驱动器分析”(我们将国家经济轨迹)进行补充,并确定其关联中最重要的是什么。接下来,我们研究全球通货膨胀,增长和股权指数回报的时间自相似性,以确定最异常的历史时期,并且过去与当前市场动态最相似。然后,我们引入了一种新的算法来构建经济状态分类并计算经济国家的积分,在该国根据其通货膨胀和增长行为确定国家属于四个候选国家之一。最后,我们实施十年的投资组合优化,以确定哪些股权指数和投资组合资产在各种市场条件下最大化投资组合风险调整后的收益最为有益。对于那些在当前高经济不确定性时期寻求资产分配指导的人来说,这可能引起人们的极大兴趣。
Motivated by the current fears of a potentially stagflationary global economic environment, this paper uses new and recently introduced mathematical techniques to study multivariate time series pertaining to country inflation (CPI), economic growth (GDP) and equity index behaviours. We begin by assessing the temporal evolution among various economic phenomena, and complement this analysis with `economic driver analysis,' where we decouple country economic trajectories and determine what is most important in their association. Next, we study the temporal self-similarity of global inflation, growth and equity index returns to identify the most anomalous historic periods, and windows in the past that are most similar to current market dynamics. We then introduce a new algorithm to construct economic state classifications and compute an economic state integral, where countries are determined to belong in one of four candidate states based on their inflation and growth behaviours. Finally, we implement a decade-by-decade portfolio optimisation to determine which equity indices and portfolio assets have been most beneficial in maximising portfolio risk-adjusted returns in various market conditions. This could be of great interest to those looking for asset allocation guidance in the current period of high economic uncertainty.