论文标题
在教育环境中估算SARS-COV-2传输:回顾性队列研究
Estimating SARS-CoV-2 transmission in educational settings: a retrospective cohort study
论文作者
论文摘要
背景学校的关闭和远程学习已广泛应用于控制SARS-COV-2传输。尽管有学校病毒循环的证据,但学生和面对面的教育对传播的贡献仍然很少量化。方法我们分析了976个涉及460个积极个人的接触事件,如2021年初通过常规监视所确定的,并通过对学生,学校人员及其家庭成员进行的大规模筛查在意大利小型市爆发中进行。对潜在传输链的分析的结果,我们估计,平均而言,感染发作分别与家庭,学校和社区接触分别相关。群集起源于学生或学校人员的平均簇大小(3.32 vs 1.15),传输链中的平均世代数量较大(1.56 vs 1.17)以及更大的相关密切接触(平均11.3 vs 3.15)。我们发现了实质性的传播异质性,有20%的阳性个体播种了75-80个所有传播。在学生中发现了较高的感染个体(48.8%vs 29.9%),他们也引起了次要病例的数量明显更高(平均:1.3 vs 0.5)。结论在学校的不受控制的传播可能会破坏定期的教学活动,可能将传播播种到其他环境中,并增加接触追踪操作的负担。
Background School closures and distance learning have been extensively applied to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Despite evidence of viral circulation in schools, the contribution of students and of in-person schooling to the transmission remains poorly quantified. Methods We analyze 976 exposure events, involving 460 positive individuals, as identified in early 2021 by routine surveillance and through an extensive screening conducted on students, school personnel, and their household members during an outbreak in a small municipality of Italy. Results From the analysis of potential transmission chains, we estimated that, on average, 55.1%, 17.3% and 27.6% infection episodes were linked to household, school, and community contacts, respectively. Clusters originated from students or school personnel showed a larger average cluster size (3.32 vs 1.15), a larger average number of generations in the transmission chain (1.56 vs 1.17) and a larger set of associated close contacts (11.3 vs 3.15, on average). We found substantial transmission heterogeneities, with 20% positive individuals seeding 75-80 of all transmission. A higher proportion of infected individuals causing onward transmission was found among students (48.8% vs 29.9%, on average), who also caused a markedly higher number of secondary cases (mean: 1.3 vs 0.5). Conclusions Uncontrolled transmission at school could disrupt the regular conduct of teaching activities, likely seeding the transmission into other settings, and increasing the burden on contact-tracing operations.