论文标题
在许多替代方案中赢得了Condorcet赢家的可能性
On the probability of a Condorcet winner among a large number of alternatives
论文作者
论文摘要
考虑$ 2K-1 $的选民,每个选民都有一个偏好排名在$ n $给定的替代方案之间。替代性$ a $称为condorcet获胜者,如果它赢得了其他所有替代$ b $多数投票的胜利(这意味着对于其他每个替代$ b $,至少有$ k $ a $ a $ a $而不是$ b $)。数十年来,对Condorcet获奖者的概念进行了深入研究,但一些基本问题仍然开放。在本文中,我们考虑了一个模型,每个选民根据所有排名之间的概率分布随机选择其排名。然后,可能会询问具有这些随机选择排名的condorcet获胜者的概率(当然,这取决于$ n $和$ k $,以及一组排名的基本概率分布)。在所有排名中均匀的概率分布的情况下,它受到了很多关注,通常被称为“公正文化”的设置,我们渐近地确定了获得固定数量$ 2K-1 $的选民和$ n $ n $ n \ n \ n \ n \ n fo \ iffty $ fy fly fy \ Infty $的固定数量$ 2K-1 $的概率。这个问题已经开放了大约五十年。尽管一些作者建议公正的文化应表现出获得condorcet获胜者的最低可能性,但实际上,对于其他分布来说,概率可能会小得多。我们确定所有值的$ n $和$ k $的值,这是获得condorcet赢家的最小可能性(并在所有排名中给出一个概率分布的示例,从而实现这一最小可能的概率)。
Consider $2k-1$ voters, each of which has a preference ranking between $n$ given alternatives. An alternative $A$ is called a Condorcet winner, if it wins against every other alternative $B$ in majority voting (meaning that for every other alternative $B$ there are at least $k$ voters who prefer $A$ over $B$). The notion of Condorcet winners has been studied intensively for many decades, yet some basic questions remain open. In this paper, we consider a model where each voter chooses their ranking randomly according to some probability distribution among all rankings. One may then ask about the probability to have a Condorcet winner with these randomly chosen rankings (which, of course, depends on $n$ and $k$, and the underlying probability distribution on the set of rankings). In the case of the uniform probability distribution over all rankings, which has received a lot of attention and is often referred to as the setting of an "impartial culture", we asymptotically determine the probability of having a Condorcet winner for a fixed number $2k-1$ of voters and $n$ alternatives with $n\to \infty$. This question has been open for around fifty years. While some authors suggested that the impartial culture should exhibit the lowest possible probability of having a Condorcet winner, in fact the probability can be much smaller for other distributions. We determine, for all values of $n$ and $k$, the smallest possible probability of having a Condorcet winner (and give an example of a probability distribution over all rankings which achieves this minimum possible probability).