论文标题

电力预测模型开发的智能端到端神经体系结构搜索框架

An Intelligent End-to-End Neural Architecture Search Framework for Electricity Forecasting Model Development

论文作者

Yang, Jin, Jiang, Guangxin, Wang, Yinan, Chen, Ying

论文摘要

近年来,在开发深度学习模型(DL)模型中,为电力系统预测的电力预测。但是,大多数提出的模型都是基于设计师的固有知识和经验而设计的,而无需详细说明拟议的神经体系结构的适合性。此外,由于其结构的僵化设计,这些模型不能自我调整到动态变化的数据模式。尽管最近的一些研究考虑了神经体系结构搜索(NAS)技术在电力预测领域获得优化结构的网络的应用,但他们的培训过程在计算上很昂贵,并且其搜索策略不灵活,这表明该领域的NAS应用仍处于婴儿期。在这项研究中,我们提出了一个智能自动化体系结构搜索(IAAS)框架,以开发时间序列的电力预测模型。所提出的框架包含三个主要组件,即基于网络功能的转换操作,加强学习(RL)的网络转换控制和启发式网络筛选,旨在提高网络结构的搜索质量。在对两个公共可用的电力负载数据集和两个风能数据集进行了全面的实验之后,我们证明,在预测准确性和稳定性方面,提议的IAAS框架显着优于十种现有模型或方法。最后,我们执行消融实验,以展示在提出的IaaS框架中关键组件在提高预测准确性方面的重要性。

Recent years have witnessed exponential growth in developing deep learning (DL) models for time-series electricity forecasting in power systems. However, most of the proposed models are designed based on the designers' inherent knowledge and experience without elaborating on the suitability of the proposed neural architectures. Moreover, these models cannot be self-adjusted to dynamically changed data patterns due to the inflexible design of their structures. Although several recent studies have considered the application of the neural architecture search (NAS) technique for obtaining a network with an optimized structure in the electricity forecasting sector, their training process is computationally expensive and their search strategies are not flexible, indicating that the NAS application in this area is still at an infancy stage. In this study, we propose an intelligent automated architecture search (IAAS) framework for the development of time-series electricity forecasting models. The proposed framework contains three primary components, i.e., network function-preserving transformation operation, reinforcement learning (RL)-based network transformation control, and heuristic network screening, which aim to improve the search quality of a network structure. After conducting comprehensive experiments on two publicly-available electricity load datasets and two wind power datasets, we demonstrate that the proposed IAAS framework significantly outperforms the ten existing models or methods in terms of forecasting accuracy and stability. Finally, we perform an ablation experiment to showcase the importance of critical components in the proposed IAAS framework in improving forecasting accuracy.

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