论文标题

大贝叶斯矢量自动测试的变异推断

Variational inference for large Bayesian vector autoregressions

论文作者

Bernardi, Mauro, Bianchi, Daniele, Bianco, Nicolas

论文摘要

我们提出了一种新型的变分贝叶斯方法,用于估计具有分层收缩先验的高维矢量自动进程(VAR)模型。我们的方法不依赖于后推断的参数空间的常规结构VAR表示。取而代之的是,我们直接在回归系数的基质上引起分层收缩率,以便(1)先前的结构直接映射到降低形式过渡矩阵上的后验推断,(2)后验估计值对变量置换更强大。一项广泛的仿真研究提供了证据,表明我们的方法与现有的线性和非线性马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛和变异贝叶斯方法进行了比较。我们在均值变化的投资者中,从我们的变异推理方法中调查了预测的统计和经济价值,以在大量不同的行业投资组合中分配她的财富。结果表明,更准确的估计值转化为实质性的统计和经济外面的取得的收益。结果跨越不同的分层收缩率和模型维度。

We propose a novel variational Bayes approach to estimate high-dimensional vector autoregression (VAR) models with hierarchical shrinkage priors. Our approach does not rely on a conventional structural VAR representation of the parameter space for posterior inference. Instead, we elicit hierarchical shrinkage priors directly on the matrix of regression coefficients so that (1) the prior structure directly maps into posterior inference on the reduced-form transition matrix, and (2) posterior estimates are more robust to variables permutation. An extensive simulation study provides evidence that our approach compares favourably against existing linear and non-linear Markov Chain Monte Carlo and variational Bayes methods. We investigate both the statistical and economic value of the forecasts from our variational inference approach within the context of a mean-variance investor allocating her wealth in a large set of different industry portfolios. The results show that more accurate estimates translate into substantial statistical and economic out-of-sample gains. The results hold across different hierarchical shrinkage priors and model dimensions.

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