论文标题
有效的基于深度学习的降水和估计的培训策略
Effective Training Strategies for Deep-learning-based Precipitation Nowcasting and Estimation
论文作者
论文摘要
深度学习已成功地应用于降水现象。在这项工作中,我们提出了一种预训练方案和一个新的损失功能,以改善基于深度学习的现象。首先,我们适应了一个广泛使用的深度学习模型U-NET,以解决此处感兴趣的两个问题:雷达图像的沉淀和降水估计。我们以三个降水间隔将前者提出为分类问题,而后者则作为回归问题。对于这些任务,我们建议预先培训模型,以在不久的将来预测雷达图像,而不需要地面真相降水,我们还建议使用新的损失函数进行微调来减轻类不平衡问题。我们使用从韩国收集的雷达图像和降水数据集证明了我们的方法的有效性。有人强调的是,我们的预训练方案和新的损失函数可在5小时的提前时间分别提高大降雨(至少10 mm/hr)的关键成功指数(CSI)(至少10 mm/hr)的关键指数(至少10 mm/hr)。我们还证明,与常规降雨相比,我们的方法将降水估计误差降低多达10.7%(1至10 mm/hr)。最后,我们报告了我们对不同分辨率的方法的敏感性,并对四起大雨案例进行了详细分析。
Deep learning has been successfully applied to precipitation nowcasting. In this work, we propose a pre-training scheme and a new loss function for improving deep-learning-based nowcasting. First, we adapt U-Net, a widely-used deep-learning model, for the two problems of interest here: precipitation nowcasting and precipitation estimation from radar images. We formulate the former as a classification problem with three precipitation intervals and the latter as a regression problem. For these tasks, we propose to pre-train the model to predict radar images in the near future without requiring ground-truth precipitation, and we also propose the use of a new loss function for fine-tuning to mitigate the class imbalance problem. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach using radar images and precipitation datasets collected from South Korea over seven years. It is highlighted that our pre-training scheme and new loss function improve the critical success index (CSI) of nowcasting of heavy rainfall (at least 10 mm/hr) by up to 95.7% and 43.6%, respectively, at a 5-hr lead time. We also demonstrate that our approach reduces the precipitation estimation error by up to 10.7%, compared to the conventional approach, for light rainfall (between 1 and 10 mm/hr). Lastly, we report the sensitivity of our approach to different resolutions and a detailed analysis of four cases of heavy rainfall.