论文标题
与年龄异质性：COVID-19作为案例研究的社区中混合传播的混合传播
Studying the mixed transmission in a community with age heterogeneity: COVID-19 as a case study
论文作者
论文摘要
Covid-19在全球范围内一直很普遍，大约两年了，并为我们的社会带来了前所未有的挑战。在可用疫苗之前，主要的疾病干预策略是非药物的。从2020年12月开始，在加拿大安大略省，疫苗被批准用于弱势个人，并逐渐扩展到12岁以上的所有个人。随着疫苗的覆盖范围达到了令人满意的水平，在合格的社交活动中，正常的社交活动恢复了，学校重新开放了9月2021年，从9月2021年开始，在较高的范围内，在较高的范围内，他们在较高的范围内又有了较高的危险，而这一年龄段的人是12岁以下的。我们提出了一个基于个人年龄和疫苗资格的年龄分解模型。我们将模型适合加拿大安大略省的数据，并获得良好的效果。结果表明，与增加组内接触率相比，放松的组间接触率可能更容易触发未来的流行波。老年组的混合接触率的提高迅速扩大了这两组的每日发病率数量，而年轻组的混合接触率的增加主要导致仅年轻组的未来波浪。结果表明，在减轻疾病扩散中加速疫苗推出的疫苗推出的重要性。
COVID-19 has been prevalent worldwide for about 2 years now and has brought unprecedented challenges to our society. Before vaccines were available, the main disease intervention strategies were non-pharmaceutical. Starting December 2020, in Ontario, Canada, vaccines were approved for administering to vulnerable individuals and gradually expanded to all individuals above the age of 12. As the vaccine coverage reached a satisfactory level among the eligible population, normal social activities resumed and schools reopened starting September 2021. However, when schools reopen for in-person learning, children under the age of 12 are unvaccinated and are at higher risks of contracting the virus. We propose an age-stratified model based on the age and vaccine eligibility of the individuals. We fit our model to the data in Ontario, Canada and obtain a good fitting result. The results show that a relaxed between-group contact rate may trigger future epidemic waves more easily than an increased within-group contact rate. An increasing mixed contact rate of the older group quickly amplifies the daily incidence numbers for both groups whereas an increasing mixed contact rate of the younger group mainly leads to future waves in the younger group alone. The results indicate the importance of accelerating vaccine rollout for younger individuals in mitigating disease spread.
