论文标题
野猪非洲猪发烧的扩散指标
The Diffusion Metrics of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar
论文作者
论文摘要
为了有效地控制非洲猪热(ASF),需要易于解释的暴发动态指标来计划和适应所需的措施。我们发现,野猪中非洲猪发烧病例的扩散模式遵循了扩散过程的机制,至少在早期,对于德国发生的情况。入侵先前不受影响的地区后,感染在天真且丰富的野猪种群中局部传播。使用德国的实际病例数据,我们得出了有关时间差和连续病例报告之间距离的统计信息。通过使用这些统计数据,我们产生了一个随机步行者(连续时间随机步行,CTRW)的集合,这些散发性类似于观察到的爆发模式的特性,这是所有可能的疾病传播模式的一种可能实现。受过训练的随机助行器合奏产生的扩散常数,受影响的区域以及早期ASF在野猪中的爆发速度。这些数量易于解释,健壮,并且可能被广义化或适应不同地区。因此,扩散指标可以是早期疾病动态的有用描述,并有助于有效控制非洲猪的热。
To control African swine fever (ASF) efficiently, easily interpretable metrics of the outbreak dynamics are needed to plan and adapt the required measures. We found that the spread pattern of African Swine Fever cases in wild boar follows the mechanics of a diffusion process, at least in the early phase, for the cases that occurred in Germany. Following incursion into a previously unaffected area, infection disseminates locally within a naive and abundant wild boar population. Using real case data for Germany, we derive statistics about the time differences and distances between consecutive case reports. With the use of these statistics, we generate an ensemble of random walkers (continuous time random walks, CTRW) that resemble the properties of the observed outbreak pattern as one possible realization of all possible disease dissemination patterns. The trained random walker ensemble yields the diffusion constant, the affected area, and the outbreak velocity of early ASF spread in wild boar. These quantities are easy to interpret, robust, and may be generalized or adapted to different regions. Therefore, diffusion metrics can be useful descriptors of early disease dynamics and help facilitate efficient control of African Swine Fever.