论文标题

科学机器学习中的不确定性量化:方法,指标和比较

Uncertainty Quantification in Scientific Machine Learning: Methods, Metrics, and Comparisons

论文作者

Psaros, Apostolos F, Meng, Xuhui, Zou, Zongren, Guo, Ling, Karniadakis, George Em

论文摘要

神经网络(NNS)目前正在改变有关如何以深刻的方式将数据与物理和工程学中的数学定律相结合的计算范式,从而解决了不可用传统方法解决的挑战性逆和不良问题。但是,基于NN的推理中量化错误和不确定性比传统方法更为复杂。这是因为除了与嘈杂数据相关的差异不确定性之外,由于数据有限,还存在不确定性,但也由于NN超参数,过度参数化,优化和采样误差以及模型错误指定。尽管在NNS中有一些有关不确定性定量(UQ)的最新作品,但没有系统地研究适当的方法来有效,有效地量化总的不确定性,即使在功能近似方面,也没有使用NNS之间的无限维度函数之间的部分差分方程和学习偏差方程和学习操作员映射的工作。在这项工作中,我们提出了一个综合框架,其中包括不确定性建模,新的和现有的解决方案方法以及评估指标和事后改进方法。为了证明框架的适用性和可靠性,我们提出了一项广泛的比较研究,其中对原型问题进行了各种方法,包括混合输入输出数据的问题以及高维度中的随机问题。在附录中,我们包括对所采用的所有UQ方法的全面描述,我们将作为本框架中包含的所有代码的开源库提供。

Neural networks (NNs) are currently changing the computational paradigm on how to combine data with mathematical laws in physics and engineering in a profound way, tackling challenging inverse and ill-posed problems not solvable with traditional methods. However, quantifying errors and uncertainties in NN-based inference is more complicated than in traditional methods. This is because in addition to aleatoric uncertainty associated with noisy data, there is also uncertainty due to limited data, but also due to NN hyperparameters, overparametrization, optimization and sampling errors as well as model misspecification. Although there are some recent works on uncertainty quantification (UQ) in NNs, there is no systematic investigation of suitable methods towards quantifying the total uncertainty effectively and efficiently even for function approximation, and there is even less work on solving partial differential equations and learning operator mappings between infinite-dimensional function spaces using NNs. In this work, we present a comprehensive framework that includes uncertainty modeling, new and existing solution methods, as well as evaluation metrics and post-hoc improvement approaches. To demonstrate the applicability and reliability of our framework, we present an extensive comparative study in which various methods are tested on prototype problems, including problems with mixed input-output data, and stochastic problems in high dimensions. In the Appendix, we include a comprehensive description of all the UQ methods employed, which we will make available as open-source library of all codes included in this framework.

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