论文标题
Alpha:从先前手工审核的选票中学习的审计
ALPHA: Audit that Learns from Previously Hand-Audited Ballots
论文作者
论文摘要
Bravo是限制风险选举审计的最广泛尝试的方法,如果没有替换或分层抽样,这可以提高效率,并且可能需要法律要求。它仅适用于投票审核,这些审核的效率不如比较审核。它适用于多数,多数,超多数,比例代表和排名选择的投票竞赛,但并不适用于许多社会选择功能,其中有RLA方法,例如批准投票,批准,投票,博尔达计数和一般得分规则。尽管Bravo在报告的投票股完全正确的情况下,在依次有效的投票式播放方法中,预期的样本量最小,但是当报告的报道获奖者(S)确实获胜时,它可能需要任意大型样本,但报告的投票股是错误的。 Alpha是对Bravo的简单概括,即(i)可用于进行和不替代和伯努利采样的采样; (ii)通过避免使用$ p $ - 价值组合功能或最大化$ p $ - 价值范围内的滋扰参数,并允许跨层的自适应采样来增加分层审核的功率; (iii)不仅适用于投票播放,而且用于投票级比较,批处理和批处理级比较审核,在有或没有替换的情况下进行采样,均匀或与大小成比例的重量; (iv)为香格拉涵盖的所有社会选择功能工作; (v)在使用Alpha和Bravo的情况下,当报告的投票股错误时,需要比Bravo更小的样本,但结果是正确的 - 在某些示例中,五个数量级。 Alpha包括在RILACS中进行的Beting Martingale测试家族,其下注策略参数为估计人口平均值和明确的灵活性,以适应抽奖因抽取因素而变化的采样权重和种群界限。
BRAVO, the most widely tried method for risk-limiting election audits, cannot accommodate sampling without replacement or stratified sampling, which can improve efficiency and may be required by law. It applies only to ballot-polling audits, which are less efficient than comparison audits. It applies to plurality, majority, super-majority, proportional representation, and ranked-choice voting contests, but not to many social choice functions for which there are RLA methods, such as approval voting, STAR-voting, Borda count, and general scoring rules. And while BRAVO has the smallest expected sample size among sequentially valid ballot-polling-with-replacement methods when reported vote shares are exactly right, it can require arbitrarily large samples when the reported reported winner(s) really won but reported vote shares are wrong. ALPHA is a simple generalization of BRAVO that (i) works for sampling with and without replacement and Bernoulli sampling; (ii) increases power for stratified audits by avoiding the need to use a $P$-value combining function or to maximize $P$-values over nuisance parameters within strata, and allowing adaptive sampling across strata; (iii) works not only for ballot-polling but also for ballot-level comparison, batch-polling, and batch-level comparison audits, sampling with or without replacement, uniformly or with weights proportional to size; (iv) works for all social choice functions covered by SHANGRLA; and (v) in situations where both ALPHA and BRAVO apply, requires smaller samples than BRAVO when the reported vote shares are wrong but the outcome is correct--five orders of magnitude in some examples. ALPHA includes the family of betting martingale tests in RiLACS, with a different betting strategy parametrized as an estimator of the population mean and explicit flexibility to accommodate sampling weights and population bounds that vary by draw.