论文标题

在城市规模的救护车派遣中建模医院策略

Modelling Hospital Strategies in City-Scale Ambulance Dispatching

论文作者

Fu, Xinyu, Krzhizhanovskaya, Valeria, Yakovlev, Alexey, Kovalchuk, Sergey

论文摘要

救护车调度过程中的优化对于需要早期治疗的患者而言是重要的。但是,很少研究动态救护车重新部署目的地医院选择的问题。本文提出了一种模拟和模拟大城市多代理保健环境中的救护车派遣过程的方法。所提出的方法是基于使用耦合游戏理论(GT)方法来识别医院策略(将医院作为非合作游戏中的医院作为参与者),并对患者提供和提供医疗服务的离散事件模拟(DES)进行评估救护车(选择目标医院)。假设决策对患者分娩的集体性质,该方法评估了医院的各种行为对系统性能的影响,并可能进一步优化这种绩效。通过以简化的1D模型开头的一系列情况来研究该方法,并使用耦合的2D模型和现实世界应用程序进行。该研究认为,向目标医院的ACS患者派遣救护车的问题。分析了来自圣彼得堡(俄罗斯)数据的现实案例研究,显示了医疗保健系统全球特征(死亡率)的更好一致性,并采用了建议的方法来发现代理人的多样化行为。

The optimisation in the ambulance dispatching process is significant for patients who need early treatments. However, the problem of dynamic ambulance redeployment for destination hospital selection has rarely been investigated. The paper proposes an approach to model and simulate the ambulance dispatching process in multi-agents healthcare environments of large cities. The proposed approach is based on using the coupled game-theoretic (GT) approach to identify hospital strategies (considering hospitals as players within a non-cooperative game) and performing discrete-event simulation (DES) of patient delivery and provision of healthcare services to evaluate ambulance dispatching (selection of target hospital). Assuming the collective nature of decisions on patient delivery, the approach assesses the influence of the diverse behaviours of hospitals on system performance with possible further optimisation of this performance. The approach is studied through a series of cases starting with a simplified 1D model and proceeding with a coupled 2D model and real-world application. The study considers the problem of dispatching ambulances to patients with the ACS directed to the PCI in the target hospital. A real-world case study of data from Saint Petersburg (Russia) is analysed showing the better conformity of the global characteristics (mortality rate) of the healthcare system with the proposed approach being applied to discovering the agents' diverse behaviour.

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