论文标题

聚类和预测多个功能时间序列

Clustering and Forecasting Multiple Functional Time Series

论文作者

Tang, Chen, Shang, Han Lin, Yang, Yanrong

论文摘要

多个国家的建模和预测均质年龄特异性死亡率可能会导致长期预测的改善。通常根据名义属性(例如地理区域,种族群体和社会经济状况)将数据分为联合模型,这些属性仍可能包含异质性并恶化预测结果。我们的论文提出了一种新颖的聚类技术,以基于功能面板数据建模来解决多个功能时间序列之间的同质性,以解决此问题。使用具有固定效果的功能面板数据模型,我们可以提取常见的功能时间序列特征。这些常见特征可以分解为两个组成部分:功能时间趋势和函数变化模式(功能模式)。功能时间趋势反映了跨时间的动力学,而功能模式捕获了曲线内的波动。提议的聚类方法通过考虑曲线之间的变化方式和时间动态来搜索多个国家 /地区的同质年龄特异性死亡率。我们证明,所提出的聚类技术通过蒙特卡洛模拟优于其他现有方法,并且可以处理具有缓慢衰减特征值的复杂情况。在经验数据分析中,我们发现特异性死亡率的聚类结果可以通过地理区域,种族群体和社会经济状况的结合来解释。我们进一步表明,与预测年龄特异性死亡率中的几种基准方法相比,我们的模型产生的预测更加准确。

Modelling and forecasting homogeneous age-specific mortality rates of multiple countries could lead to improvements in long-term forecasting. Data fed into joint models are often grouped according to nominal attributes, such as geographic regions, ethnic groups, and socioeconomic status, which may still contain heterogeneity and deteriorate the forecast results. Our paper proposes a novel clustering technique to pursue homogeneity among multiple functional time series based on functional panel data modelling to address this issue. Using a functional panel data model with fixed effects, we can extract common functional time series features. These common features could be decomposed into two components: the functional time trend and the mode of variations of functions (functional pattern). The functional time trend reflects the dynamics across time, while the functional pattern captures the fluctuations within curves. The proposed clustering method searches for homogeneous age-specific mortality rates of multiple countries by accounting for both the modes of variations and the temporal dynamics among curves. We demonstrate that the proposed clustering technique outperforms other existing methods through a Monte Carlo simulation and could handle complicated cases with slow decaying eigenvalues. In empirical data analysis, we find that the clustering results of age-specific mortality rates can be explained by the combination of geographic region, ethnic groups, and socioeconomic status. We further show that our model produces more accurate forecasts than several benchmark methods in forecasting age-specific mortality rates.

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