论文标题
气候对经济和金融周期的影响：马尔可夫开关小组的方法
The impact of Climate on Economic and Financial Cycles: A Markov-switching Panel Approach
论文作者
论文摘要
本文研究了气候冲击对13个欧洲经济体的影响，分析了不同阶段的共同业务和金融周期，并解散了对不同部门渠道的影响。提出了一个贝叶斯小组马尔可夫开关框架，以共同估计极端天气事件对经济体以及商业与金融周期之间的相互作用的影响。经验分析的结果表明，极端天气事件在经济的不同阶段和整个欧盟国家的异质阶段不对称地影响。此外，我们强调了制造产出是工业生产指数的一个组成部分，构成了气候冲击影响欧盟经济体的主要渠道。
This paper examines the impact of climate shocks on 13 European economies analysing jointly business and financial cycles, in different phases and disentangling the effects for different sector channels. A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching framework is proposed to jointly estimate the impact of extreme weather events on the economies as well as the interaction between business and financial cycles. Results from the empirical analysis suggest that extreme weather events impact asymmetrically across the different phases of the economy and heterogeneously across the EU countries. Moreover, we highlight how the manufacturing output, a component of the industrial production index, constitutes the main channel through which climate shocks impact the EU economies.
