论文标题
自行车共享系统的时空功能模型 - 基于赫尔辛基市的示例
A Spatiotemporal Functional Model for Bike-Sharing Systems -- An Example based on the City of Helsinki
论文作者
论文摘要
在支持和增强此类方案的运营计划方面,了解自行车共享系统的使用模式至关重要。研究已经证明了天气条件等因素如何影响白天在某些时间在自行车共享站中可用的自行车数量。但是,这些因素的影响通常在一天的过程中有所不同,如果有良好的时间分辨率,则只有几个小时/分钟的时间(高峰时间,商店开业的小时等小时)也可能产生重大影响。因此,在本文中,对赫尔辛基2017年的自行车共享数据进行了分析,该数据考虑了完全的时间和空间分辨率。此外,数据以非常高的频率可用。因此,在时空功能设置中分析了站雇用数据,其中车站的自行车数量定义为一天中时间的连续函数。对于这种完全新颖的方法,我们采用功能时空层次模型来研究环境因素的影响以及空间和时间依赖性的幅度。使用自举方法面临计算复杂性的挑战。结果表明,必须根据其时空功能观测值的相似性将自行车共享站分成两个集群,以便对赫尔辛基自行车共享系统的车站雇用数据进行建模。对于两个簇,所提出的因素的估计功能影响是不同的。此外,估计的参数揭示了数据中未由过程平均值解释的高随机效应。在此随机效应模型中,时间自回归参数主导了空间依赖性。
Understanding the usage patterns for bike-sharing systems is essential in terms of supporting and enhancing operational planning for such schemes. Studies have demonstrated how factors such as weather conditions influence the number of bikes that should be available at bike-sharing stations at certain times during the day. However, the influences of these factors usually vary over the course of a day, and if there is good temporal resolution, there could also be significant effects only for some hours/minutes (rush hours, the hours when shops are open, and so forth). Thus, in this paper, an analysis of Helsinki's bike-sharing data from 2017 is conducted that considers full temporal and spatial resolutions. Moreover, the data are available at a very high frequency. Hence, the station hire data is analysed in a spatiotemporal functional setting, where the number of bikes at a station is defined as a continuous function of the time of day. For this completely novel approach, we apply a functional spatiotemporal hierarchical model to investigate the effect of environmental factors and the magnitude of the spatial and temporal dependence. Challenges in computational complexity are faced using a bootstrapping approach. The results show the necessity of splitting the bike-sharing stations into two clusters based on the similarity of their spatiotemporal functional observations in order to model the station hire data of Helsinki's bike-sharing system effectively. The estimated functional influences of the proposed factors are different for the two clusters. Moreover, the estimated parameters reveal high random effects in the data that are not explained by the mean of the process. In this random-effects model, the temporal autoregressive parameter dominates the spatial dependence.