论文标题
银河系中发生外星智能的发生的统计估计
A Statistical Estimation of the Occurrence of Extraterrestrial Intelligence in the Milky Way Galaxy
论文作者
论文摘要
在天体生物学领域,尚未明确探讨天体生物学领域(ETI)的精确位置,流行率和年龄。在这里,我们使用经验银河模拟模型来解决这些查询,以分析银河系中潜在ETI的时空变化和潜在ETI的流行。该模型估计了ETI的发生,并提供了有关在搜索ETI(SETI)中寻找智能生活的指导,其中包括一套标准,包括银河系的天体物理特性。此外,通常会纳入诸如亚物质发生过程,不同进化时间尺度和潜在自我否认的因素,以探索ETI的生长倾向。我们检查了三个主要参数:1)物被发生的可能性率(λa); 2)进化时间尺度(TEVO); 3)复杂生活自我宣传的可能性(PANN)。我们发现PANN是确定银河智能生命的数量和年龄的最具影响力的参数。我们的模型模拟还确定了大约80亿年(GYRS)约4 kpc的环形区域的ETI的峰位置(GYRS),其复杂寿命从峰值点上降低了,声称在银河系内磁盘中具有很高的智能寿命。模拟的年龄分布还表明,我们银河系中的大多数智能生活都是年轻的,因此使观察或检测变得困难。
In the field of Astrobiology, the precise location, prevalence and age of potential extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) have not been explicitly explored. Here, we address these inquiries using an empirical galactic simulation model to analyze the spatial-temporal variations and the prevalence of potential ETI within the Galaxy. This model estimates the occurrence of ETI, providing guidance on where to look for intelligent life in the Search for ETI (SETI) with a set of criteria, including well-established astrophysical properties of the Milky Way. Further, typically overlooked factors such as the process of abiogenesis, different evolutionary timescales and potential self-annihilation are incorporated to explore the growth propensity of ETI. We examine three major parameters: 1) the likelihood rate of abiogenesis (λA); 2) evolutionary timescales (Tevo); and 3) probability of self-annihilation of complex life (Pann). We found Pann to be the most influential parameter determining the quantity and age of galactic intelligent life. Our model simulation also identified a peak location for ETI at an annular region approximately 4 kpc from the Galactic center around 8 billion years (Gyrs), with complex life decreasing temporally and spatially from the peak point, asserting a high likelihood of intelligent life in the galactic inner disk. The simulated age distributions also suggest that most of the intelligent life in our galaxy are young, thus making observation or detection difficult.