论文标题
社交媒体警报可以改善但不能替换水文模型以预测洪水
Social Media Alerts can Improve, but not Replace Hydrological Models for Forecasting Floods
论文作者
论文摘要
社交媒体可用于减少灾害风险，作为对传统信息来源的补充，文献提出了许多实现这一目标的方法。例如，就洪水而言，社交媒体的数据收集可能是由恶劣天气预测和/或洪水预测引发的。相比之下，在本文中，我们探讨了完全基于社交媒体并完全自动激活的完全独立的洪水监测系统的可能性。这种独立性和自我激活将带来增加的鲁棒性，因为该系统不取决于预测的其他机制。我们观察到，社交媒体确实可以在早期发现一些洪水事件的早期发现，否则这些事件直到以后才被发现，尽管以许多误报为代价。总体而言，我们的实验表明，社交媒体信号仅应用于补充现有的监视系统，我们提供了支持这一论点的各种解释。
Social media can be used for disaster risk reduction as a complement to traditional information sources, and the literature has suggested numerous ways to achieve this. In the case of floods, for instance, data collection from social media can be triggered by a severe weather forecast and/or a flood prediction. By way of contrast, in this paper we explore the possibility of having an entirely independent flood monitoring system which is based completely on social media, and which is completely self-activated. This independence and self-activation would bring increased robustness, as the system would not depend on other mechanisms for forecasting. We observe that social media can indeed help in the early detection of some flood events that would otherwise not be detected until later, albeit at the cost of many false positives. Overall, our experiments suggest that social media signals should only be used to complement existing monitoring systems, and we provide various explanations to support this argument.
