论文标题
强制性面具戴戴延迟的含义 - 如果分析
Implications of Delay in Compulsory Mask Wearing -- A What-if Analysis
论文作者
论文摘要
我们研究了强制性面具戴延迟对新加坡环境中Covid-19的传播的影响。通过使用基于修改的SEIR隔室模型，我们通过一系列基于场景的分析，重点介绍了强制性面具戴戴戴延迟与最大感染之间关系的宏观种群级分析。我们的分析表明，集体掩蔽可以有意义地减少社区中COVID -19的传播，但前提是在检测到第一次感染后80-100天延迟之前的关键时间窗口内实施，并与严格的执行措施相结合以确保整个持续时间的合规性。我们还确定所谓的无回报点，延迟阈值约100天，导致掩盖执法对最大感染值的影响很小。
We investigate the impact of the delay in compulsory mask wearing on the spread of COVID-19 in the community, set in the Singapore context. By using modified SEIR-based compartmental models, we focus on macroscopic population-level analysis of the relationships between the delay in compulsory mask wearing and the maximum infection, through a series of scenario-based analysis. Our analysis suggests that collective masking can meaningfully reduce the transmission of COVID-19 in the community, but only if implemented within a critical time window of approximately before 80 - 100 days delay after the first infection is detected, coupled with strict enforcement to ensure compliance throughout the duration. We also identify what is called a point of no return, a delay threshold of about 100 days that results in masking enforcement having little significant impact on the Maximum Infected Values.
