论文标题
空间扩展系统中线性响应的预测指标和预测
Predictors and Predictands of Linear Response in Spatially Extended Systems
论文作者
论文摘要
响应理论在其许多统计机械公式中的每一个中的目标是从不受干扰的状态和应用扰动的知识中预测系统的扰动响应。该问题的最新角度着重于提供一种方法，通过在第二个可观察到的实际强迫替代物中使用第二个变化来执行系统可观察到的变化的方法。当仅可用信息时，这种观点试图解决复杂系统中因果链接的非常相关的问题。我们在这里提出了一种量化和排名可观察力的预测能力的方法，并使用它来研究范式扩展系统（Lorenz '96模型）的响应。我们在本地扰动系统，然后研究给定的局部可观察到的在多大程度上可以预测单独的局部可观察的行为。我们表明，这种方法可以揭示有关信号在系统内部传播方式的见解。我们还表明，如果人们认为多个作用强制性，并且相应地将多个可观察到的预测指标为可观察到的感兴趣的预测指标，则该过程将变得更加有效。
The goal of response theory, in each of its many statistical mechanical formulations, is to predict the perturbed response of a system from the knowledge of the unperturbed state and of the applied perturbation. A new recent angle on the problem focuses on providing a method to perform predictions of the change in one observable of the system by using the change in a second observable as a surrogate for the actual forcing. Such a viewpoint tries to address the very relevant problem of causal links within complex system when only incomplete information is available. We present here a method for quantifying and ranking the predictive ability of observables and use it to investigate the response of a paradigmatic spatially extended system, the Lorenz '96 model. We perturb locally the system and we then study to what extent a given local observable can predict the behaviour of a separate local observable. We show that this approach can reveal insights on the way a signal propagates inside the system. We also show that the procedure becomes more efficient if one considers multiple acting forcings and, correspondingly, multiple observables as predictors of the observable of interest.
