论文标题

使用相应先验的贝叶斯样本量确定来利用实验前数据

Bayesian sample size determination using commensurate priors to leverage pre-experimental data

论文作者

Zheng, Haiyan, Jaki, Thomas, Wason, James M. S.

论文摘要

本文开发了贝叶斯样本量公式,用于比较两组的实验。我们假设将在贝叶斯框架中分析实验数据,其中可以将来自多个来源的实验前信息表示为强大的先验。特别是,这种强大的先验解释了对基于历史和新实验的参数之间的成对可分性,以允许灵活借用信息。在新实验数据的概率空间上平均,根据控制后验分布的某些方面的标准,例如覆盖率概率或定义密度区域的长度,发现了适当的样本量。我们的贝叶斯方法可以应用于新实验中常见或未知的常见方差的情况。根据贝叶斯样本量确定的大多数标准,可以使用精确的解决方案,而在没有封闭形式表达式的情况下,描述了搜索程序。我们说明了贝叶斯样本量公式在设计临床试验的设置中的应用。假设数据示例是由罕见的疾病试验引起的,并引起了专家的先验意见,并对拟议方法进行了全面的绩效评估。

This paper develops Bayesian sample size formulae for experiments comparing two groups. We assume the experimental data will be analysed in the Bayesian framework, where pre-experimental information from multiple sources can be represented into robust priors. In particular, such robust priors account for preliminary belief about the pairwise commensurability between parameters that underpin the historical and new experiments, to permit flexible borrowing of information. Averaged over the probability space of the new experimental data, appropriate sample sizes are found according to criteria that control certain aspects of the posterior distribution, such as the coverage probability or length of a defined density region. Our Bayesian methodology can be applied to circumstances where the common variance in the new experiment is known or unknown. Exact solutions are available based on most of the criteria considered for Bayesian sample size determination, while a search procedure is described in cases for which there are no closed-form expressions. We illustrate the application of our Bayesian sample size formulae in the setting of designing a clinical trial. Hypothetical data examples, motivated by a rare-disease trial with elicitation of expert prior opinion, and a comprehensive performance evaluation of the proposed methodology are presented.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源