论文标题
时空Covid-19南卡罗来纳州贝叶斯爵士
Space-Time Covid-19 Bayesian SIR modeling in South Carolina
论文作者
论文摘要
自2020年初以来，Covid-19-19的大流行已经遍及全球。许多地区经历了其影响。自2020年3月上旬以来，美国南卡罗来纳州就已经发生了案件，并于2020年4月上旬达到了主要高峰。4月6日，锁定了限制，但于4月24日开始限制。 NCHS（死亡）通过《纽约时报》 GitHub存储库报告的每日病例和死亡数据已被分析，并提出了数据建模的方法。还考虑了预测，无症状传播的作用被评估为潜在的未观察效应。检查了两个不同的时间段，并提供了一步预测。
The Covid-19 pandemic has spread across the world since the beginning of 2020. Many regions have experienced its effects. The state of South Carolina in the USA has seen cases since early March 2020 and a primary peak in early April 2020. A lockdown was imposed on April 6th but lifting of restrictions started on April 24th. The daily case and death data as reported by NCHS (deaths) via the New York Times GitHUB repository have been analyzed and approaches to modeling of the data are presented. Prediction is also considered and the role of asymptomatic transmission is assessed as a latent unobserved effect. Two different time periods are examined and one step prediction is provided.
