论文标题

基于代理的仿真平台的电子商务交付需求建模框架

E-Commerce Delivery Demand Modeling Framework for An Agent-Based Simulation Platform

论文作者

Sakai, Takanori, Hara, Yusuke, Seshadri, Ravi, Alho, André, Hasnine, Md Sami, Jing, Peiyu, Chua, ZhiYuan, Ben-Akiva, Moshe

论文摘要

在过去的二十年中,电子商务的交付需求迅速增长,由于持续的冠状病毒大流行,这种趋势迅速加速。鉴于情况,需要预测电子商务交付需求和评估相关物流解决方案的需求正在增加。但是,现有的电子商务交付需求模型仍然有限,并且不考虑购物者在电子商务订单安排上所面临的交付选项及其属性。我们提出了一个新颖的建模框架,该框架共同预测电子商务购买的平均总价值,每笔交易的购买金额以及交付期权选择。所提出的框架可以模拟电子商务交付需求的变化,归因于交付选项的变化。我们基于相关信息的各种来源假设模型参数,并进行了证明的灵敏度分析。此外,我们已经将模型应用于自动创新原型城市的模拟。尽管需要使用现实世界调查数据对模型进行校准,但分析的结果突出了所提出的框架的适用性。

The e-commerce delivery demand has grown rapidly in the past two decades and such trend has accelerated tremendously due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Given the situation, the need for predicting e-commerce delivery demand and evaluating relevant logistics solutions is increasing. However, the existing simulation models for e-commerce delivery demand are still limited and do not consider the delivery options and their attributes that shoppers face on e-commerce order placements. We propose a novel modeling framework which jointly predicts the average total value of e-commerce purchase, the purchase amount per transaction, and delivery option choices. The proposed framework can simulate the changes in e-commerce delivery demand attributable to the changes in delivery options. We assume the model parameters based on various sources of relevant information and conduct a demonstrative sensitivity analysis. Furthermore, we have applied the model to the simulation for the Auto-Innovative Prototype city. While the calibration of the model using real-world survey data is required, the result of the analysis highlights the applicability of the proposed framework.

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