论文标题

黑子计数中的不确定性定量

Uncertainty quantification in sunspot counts

论文作者

Mathieu, Sophie, Delouille, Véronique, Lefèvre, Laure, Ritter, Christian, von Sachs, Rainer

论文摘要

观察和计数黑子构成了最长的科学实验之一,首先观察的历史可以追溯到伽利略,望远镜的发明左右是1610年左右的发明。如今,Sunspot Number(SN)时间序列在大型物理模型中起了太阳能活动的基准。然而,仍然缺乏适合时间序列的复杂性质的适当统计建模。在这项工作中,我们提供了对黑子计数的第一个全面的不确定性量化分析。我们的兴趣在于以下三个组成部分:斑点数($ n_s $),黑子组的数量($ n_g $)和复合$ n_c $,定义为$ n_c:= n_s+10n_g $。这些都是由世界各地的观测网络报告的,并被各种类型的错误所破坏。我们使用乘法框架为三个组件中的每个组成部分提供估计其在各种制度(短期,长期,太阳能活动的最小值)中的误差分布的估计。我们还为基础太阳信号提出了一个可靠的估计器,并拟合了密度分布,该密度分布考虑了固有的特征,例如过度分散,零过量和多种模式。复合$ N_C $基础的太阳信号的估计可以看作是国际日光数(ISN)的强大版本,该数量被广泛用作太阳能活动的代理。因此,我们在$ N_C $上的结果也可能有助于表征ISN的不确定性。我们的结果为未来对观测值进行准现实时间的监视铺平了道路,目的是在观察者开始偏离网络时提醒他们,并防止网络中发生大量漂移。

Observing and counting sunspots constitutes one of the longest-running scientific experiment, with first observations dating back to Galileo and the invention of the telescope around 1610. Today the sunspot number (SN) time series acts as a benchmark of solar activity in a large range of physical models. An appropriate statistical modelling, adapted to the time series' complex nature, is however still lacking. In this work, we provide the first comprehensive uncertainty quantification analysis of sunspot counts. Our interest lies in the following three components: the number of spots ($N_s$), the number of sunspot groups ($N_g$), and the composite $N_c$, defined as $N_c:=N_s+10N_g$. Those are reported by a network of observatories around the world, and are corrupted by errors of various types. We use a multiplicative framework to provide, for each of the three components, an estimation of their error distribution in various regimes (short-term, long-term, minima of solar activity). We also propose a robust estimator for the underlying solar signal and fit a density distribution that takes into account intrinsic characteristics such as over-dispersion, excess of zeros, and multiple modes. The estimation of the solar signal underlying the composite $N_c$ may be seen as a robust version of the International Sunspot Number (ISN), a quantity widely used as a proxy of solar activity. Therefore our results on $N_c$ may serve to characterize the uncertainty on ISN as well. Our results paves the way for a future monitoring of the observatories in quasi-real time, with the aim to alert the observers when they start deviating from the network and prevent large drifts from occurring in the network.

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