论文标题
经过验证的多代理仿真测试床,通过纽约市日期来评估人口细分市场的拥塞定价政策
A validated multi-agent simulation test bed to evaluate congestion pricing policies on population segments by time-of-day in New York City
论文作者
论文摘要
由于道路上的溢出,重新安排旅行者的活动方式以及转移到影响拥塞水平的其他模式,对新兴运输技术和政策的需求的评估可能会因一天的时间而异。静态旅行需求模型没有捕捉这些效果。我们校准和验证纽约市的第一个开源多代理模拟模型,称为Matsim-nyc,以支持机构评估诸如拥堵定价之类的政策。基于仿真的虚拟测试床在先前的研究中载有8m+合成的2016人群。将路线网络校准为Inrix速度数据和东河交叉口屏幕线的平均每日流量,导致高速公路的平均速度差异为7.2%,动脉群的平均速度差异为17.1%,从而导致与东河屏幕线的平均差异为 +1.8%。针对运输站的验证显示,所观察到的计数差异为8%,部分道路链接计数的中位数差异为29%。该模型用于评估区域计划协会提出的拥堵定价计划,并建议与报告相比,减少汽车旅行的速度要高得多(59K)。定价政策将影响曼哈顿境内的人口细分市场与曼哈顿以外的旅行不同。多基因模拟可以表明,曼哈顿领域的37.3%将受到定价的负面影响,而非曼哈顿领域的39.9%则对重新分配了交通拥堵定价收入。当拥堵定价从9.18美元上涨到14美元时,即使与充电相关的人群的增加,全市旅行消费者盈余也会减少到14美元。这意味着将定价从9.18美元提高到14美元的福利曼哈顿人,而牺牲了纽约市的其他地区。
Evaluation of the demand for emerging transportation technologies and policies can vary by time of day due to spillbacks on roadways, rescheduling of travelers' activity patterns, and shifting to other modes that affect the level of congestion. These effects are not well-captured with static travel demand models. We calibrate and validate the first open-source multi-agent simulation model for New York City, called MATSim-NYC, to support agencies in evaluating policies such as congestion pricing. The simulation-based virtual test bed is loaded with an 8M+ synthetic 2016 population calibrated in a prior study. The road network is calibrated to INRIX speed data and average annual daily traffic for a screenline along the East River crossings, resulting in average speed differences of 7.2% on freeways and 17.1% on arterials, leading to average difference of +1.8% from the East River screenline. Validation against transit stations shows an 8% difference from observed counts and median difference of 29% for select road link counts. The model is used to evaluate a congestion pricing plan proposed by the Regional Plan Association and suggests a much higher (127K) car trip reduction compared to their report (59K). The pricing policy would impact the population segment making trips within Manhattan differently from the population segment of trips outside Manhattan. The multiagent simulation can show that 37.3% of the Manhattan segment would be negatively impacted by the pricing compared to 39.9% of the non-Manhattan segment, which has implications for redistribution of congestion pricing revenues. The citywide travel consumer surplus decreases when the congestion pricing goes up from $9.18 to $14 both ways even as it increases for the Charging-related population segment. This implies that increasing pricing from $9.18 to $14 benefits Manhattanites at the expense of the rest of the city.