论文标题
关系有限记录的市场细分市场需求预测的关系元学习预测
Relation-aware Meta-learning for Market Segment Demand Prediction with Limited Records
论文作者
论文摘要
电子商务业务正在通过提供方便且直接的服务来彻底改变我们的购物体验。最根本的问题之一是如何平衡市场细分市场的需求和供应,以建立一个有效的平台。尽管传统的机器学习模型在充足的数据段上取得了巨大的成功,但它可能在电子商务平台中的大量细分市场中失败,那里没有足够的记录来学习训练有素的模型。在本文中,我们在市场细分需求预测的背景下解决了这个问题。目的是通过利用来自数据源的源段来促进目标段中的学习过程。具体而言,我们提出了一种新型算法RMLDP,将多模式融合网络(MPFN)与元学习范式合并。多模式融合网络考虑了细分需求预测的本地和季节性时间模式。在元学习范式中,可转移的知识被视为MPFN的模型参数初始化,这是从不同源段中学到的。此外,我们通过组合数据驱动的段表示和段知识图表示并量身定制特定于段的关系来自定义可转移的模型参数初始化来捕获细分关系。因此,即使数据有限,目标段也可以快速找到最相关的传输知识并适应最佳参数。我们在两个大型工业数据集上进行了广泛的实验。结果证明,我们的RMLDP优于一组最先进的基线。此外,RMLDP已部署在TAOBAO,这是一个现实世界中的电子商务平台。在线A/B测试结果进一步证明了RMLDP的实用性。
E-commerce business is revolutionizing our shopping experiences by providing convenient and straightforward services. One of the most fundamental problems is how to balance the demand and supply in market segments to build an efficient platform. While conventional machine learning models have achieved great success on data-sufficient segments, it may fail in a large-portion of segments in E-commerce platforms, where there are not sufficient records to learn well-trained models. In this paper, we tackle this problem in the context of market segment demand prediction. The goal is to facilitate the learning process in the target segments by leveraging the learned knowledge from data-sufficient source segments. Specifically, we propose a novel algorithm, RMLDP, to incorporate a multi-pattern fusion network (MPFN) with a meta-learning paradigm. The multi-pattern fusion network considers both local and seasonal temporal patterns for segment demand prediction. In the meta-learning paradigm, transferable knowledge is regarded as the model parameter initialization of MPFN, which are learned from diverse source segments. Furthermore, we capture the segment relations by combining data-driven segment representation and segment knowledge graph representation and tailor the segment-specific relations to customize transferable model parameter initialization. Thus, even with limited data, the target segment can quickly find the most relevant transferred knowledge and adapt to the optimal parameters. We conduct extensive experiments on two large-scale industrial datasets. The results justify that our RMLDP outperforms a set of state-of-the-art baselines. Besides, RMLDP has been deployed in Taobao, a real-world E-commerce platform. The online A/B testing results further demonstrate the practicality of RMLDP.