论文标题
预测莫桑比克的COVID-19大流行并估算可能的情况
Forecasting COVID-19 Pandemic in Mozambique and Estimating Possible Scenarios
论文作者
论文摘要
Covid-19现在是本世纪最大的大流行危机，在全球范围内有超过1600万个注册案件。现在，非洲国家已经开始注册越来越多的案件，但是，没有多少模型在特定的非洲国家中引起了重点。在我们的研究中，我们使用一个简单的SEIR模型来评估和预测有关莫桑比克大流行危机的未来情况。我们比较了不同策略对感染曲线的影响，并估计流行病学参数，例如当前的感染繁殖数量RT和生长速率g。我们发现RT值较低，范围从1.11到1.48，正增长率在G = 0.22至0.27之间。我们的模拟还表明，锁定表明，平均降低感染峰高度为28％的潜力从20％降低到36％。
COVID-19 is now the largest pandemic crisis of this century, with over 16 million registered cases worldwide. African countries have now begun registering an increasing number of cases, yet, not many models developed focus in specific African countries. In our study we use a simple SEIR model to evaluate and predict future scenarios regarding the pandemic crisis in Mozambique. We compare the effect of different policies on the infection curve and estimate epidemiological parameters such as the current infection reproduction number Rt and the growth rate g. We have found a low value for Rt, ranging from 1.11 to 1.48 and a positive growth rate, between g = 0.22 to 0.27. Our simulations also suggest that a lockdown shows potential for reducing the infection peak height in 28%, on average, ranging from 20 to 36%.
