论文标题
（意外的）出口限制对医疗产品的后果在19日期大流行期间
(Unintended) Consequences of export restrictions on medical goods during the Covid-19 pandemic
论文作者
论文摘要
在2020年上半年，几个国家通过限制了他们的医疗用品出口来应对Covid-19-19的大流行所带来的挑战。这种措施旨在增加关键商品的国内可用性，并且通常在危机时期使用。然而，对它们的影响不太了解，尤其是对强加它们的国家。在这里，我们表明出口禁令总的来说是适得其反的。使用通过国际贸易网络进行冲击扩散模型，我们模拟了不同情况下限制的影响。我们观察到，尽管它们将对一个孤立实施它们实施的国家有益，但它们的广义使用使大多数国家相对于无键情况变得更糟。作为推论，我们估计在许多国家施加限制的价格上涨。我们还发现，即使其他人继续实施这些禁令的限制成本也很小。最后，我们记录了国际贸易网络中国家地位的变化，这表明出口禁令具有地缘政治影响。
In the first half of 2020, several countries have responded to the challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic by restricting their export of medical supplies. Such measures are meant to increase the domestic availability of critical goods, and are commonly used in times of crisis. Yet, not much is known about their impact, especially on countries imposing them. Here we show that export bans are, by and large, counterproductive. Using a model of shock diffusion through the network of international trade, we simulate the impact of restrictions under different scenarios. We observe that while they would be beneficial to a country implementing them in isolation, their generalized use makes most countries worse off relative to a no-ban scenario. As a corollary, we estimate that prices increase in many countries imposing the restrictions. We also find that the cost of restraining from export bans is small, even when others continue to implement them. Finally, we document a change in countries' position within the international trade network, suggesting that export bans have geopolitical implications.
