论文标题

基于人工智能的预测巴西和美国共同-19案件以及气候外源变量

Forecasting Brazilian and American COVID-19 cases based on artificial intelligence coupled with climatic exogenous variables

论文作者

da Silva, Ramon Gomes, Ribeiro, Matheus Henrique Dal Molin, Mariani, Viviana Cocco, Coelho, Leandro dos Santos

论文摘要

根据世界卫生组织的研究,新型冠状病毒病(COVID-19)曾经是一个公共卫生问题,直到2020年6月10日,已有710万以上的人被感染,超过40万人在全球范围内死亡。在当前情况下,巴西和美利坚合众国的日常发病率很高。重要的是要在一个星期的时间窗口中预测新案例的数量,一旦这可以帮助公共卫生系统制定战略计划,以处理COVID-19。在本文中,使用了独立的贝叶斯回归神经网络,立体主义回归,k-nearest邻居,分位数随机森林和支持矢量回归,并与最近使用的预处理变异模式分解(VMD)相结合,用于将时间序列分解为几种内在模式。所有人工智能技术均以预测的任务进行评估,并在截至2020年4月28日的五个巴西和美国州的累计COVID案件中,累积累积的COVID案件。 VMD的杂交超过了有关准确性的单个预测模型,特别是当地平线为六日二预测时,在70%的情况下实现了更好的准确性。关于外源变量,将其作为预测变量的重要性是过去的情况,温度和降水。由于评估模型的效率预测累积的COVID-19案例最多六日,因此可以建议将采用的模型作为预测的有希望的模型,并用于协助制定公共政策以减轻共同-19爆发的影响。

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a public health problem once according to the World Health Organization up to June 10th, 2020, more than 7.1 million people were infected, and more than 400 thousand have died worldwide. In the current scenario, the Brazil and the United States of America present a high daily incidence of new cases and deaths. It is important to forecast the number of new cases in a time window of one week, once this can help the public health system developing strategic planning to deals with the COVID-19. In this paper, Bayesian regression neural network, cubist regression, k-nearest neighbors, quantile random forest, and support vector regression, are used stand-alone, and coupled with the recent pre-processing variational mode decomposition (VMD) employed to decompose the time series into several intrinsic mode functions. All Artificial Intelligence techniques are evaluated in the task of time-series forecasting with one, three, and six-days-ahead the cumulative COVID-19 cases in five Brazilian and American states up to April 28th, 2020. Previous cumulative COVID-19 cases and exogenous variables as daily temperature and precipitation were employed as inputs for all forecasting models. The hybridization of VMD outperformed single forecasting models regarding the accuracy, specifically when the horizon is six-days-ahead, achieving better accuracy in 70% of the cases. Regarding the exogenous variables, the importance ranking as predictor variables is past cases, temperature, and precipitation. Due to the efficiency of evaluated models to forecasting cumulative COVID-19 cases up to six-days-ahead, the adopted models can be recommended as a promising models for forecasting and be used to assist in the development of public policies to mitigate the effects of COVID-19 outbreak.

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