论文标题
使用Nowcasting提高COVID-19的估计有效繁殖编号
Improving the Estimation of the COVID-19 Effective Reproduction Number using Nowcasting
论文作者
论文摘要
随着人们之间的相互作用的增加，Covid-19爆发的即将来临的威胁就实现了，并且有倾向于应用锁定的倾向。在这种情况下，必须使用易于使用的指标来用作参考。确认阳性的基本复制数量，$ r_t $，履行了这样的角色。本文档提出了一种基于先前观察结果的统计行为的数据驱动方法，以$ r_t $。随着更多信息的到来，该方法自然会更加精确地对确认阳性的最终计数变得更加精确。我们的方法的优势是，它基于自我报告的症状发作，与其他使用日报告计数来推断这一数量的方法相反。我们表明，我们的方法可能是确定有用的表面跟踪指标的基础。
As the interactions between people increases, the impending menace of COVID-19 outbreaks materialize, and there is an inclination to apply lockdowns. In this context, it is essential to have easy-to-use indicators for people to use as a reference. The basic reproduction number of confirmed positives, $R_t$, fulfill such a role. This document proposes a data-driven approach to nowcast $R_t$ based on previous observations' statistical behavior. As more information arrives, the method naturally becomes more precise about the final count of confirmed positives. Our method's strength is that it is based on the self-reported onset of symptoms, in contrast to other methods that use the daily report's count to infer this quantity. We show that our approach may be the foundation for determining useful epidemy tracking indicators.
