论文标题

在上下文敏感的业务过程实例中的效果和效果

Cause vs. Effect in Context-Sensitive Prediction of Business Process Instances

论文作者

Brunk, Jens, Stierle, Matthias, Papke, Leon, Revoredo, Kate, Matzner, Martin, Becker, Jörg

论文摘要

在执行业务流程实例中预测不良事件为过程参与者提供了干预的机会,并使过程与目标保持一致。很少有解决这一挑战的方法考虑了多方面的观点,在这种观点中,该过程的流程观点与周围环境相结合。鉴于当今世界的许多数据来源,上下文可能会差异很大,并且具有各种含义。本文解决了上下文的问题是下一个事件的原因或影响及其对下一个事件预测的影响。我们利用先前在概率模型上的工作来开发动态的贝叶斯网络技术。概率模型被认为是可理解的,它们允许最终用户及其对领域的理解参与预测。我们的技术模型对事件具有原因或影响关系的上下文属性。我们通过两个现实生活数据集评估了我们的技术,并通过预测过程监测领域的其他技术对其进行了基准测试。结果表明,如果将上下文信息正确引入模型,我们的解决方案将实现出色的预测结果。

Predicting undesirable events during the execution of a business process instance provides the process participants with an opportunity to intervene and keep the process aligned with its goals. Few approaches for tackling this challenge consider a multi-perspective view, where the flow perspective of the process is combined with its surrounding context. Given the many sources of data in today's world, context can vary widely and have various meanings. This paper addresses the issue of context being cause or effect of the next event and its impact on next event prediction. We leverage previous work on probabilistic models to develop a Dynamic Bayesian Network technique. Probabilistic models are considered comprehensible and they allow the end-user and his or her understanding of the domain to be involved in the prediction. Our technique models context attributes that have either a cause or effect relationship towards the event. We evaluate our technique with two real-life data sets and benchmark it with other techniques from the field of predictive process monitoring. The results show that our solution achieves superior prediction results if context information is correctly introduced into the model.

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