论文标题
爱尔兰牛群和badge的牛结核病的流行模型
Epidemic modelling of bovine tuberculosis in cattle herds and badgers in Ireland
论文作者
论文摘要
牛结核病是一种影响爱尔兰牛和badge的疾病，使用了四个地区项目的发病率数据研究了爱尔兰的牛和badge症（Griffin等，2005）。四个地区项目是一项大规模实地试验，在五年（1997-2002）中在爱尔兰的四个不同农业地区进行了大规模野外试验，以评估badge的影响对牛群中牛结核病发生的影响。 基于几种模型的比较，数据最能支持与受感染的badge的总数成正比的模型，并且最佳地支持了与受感染的badge的总数相称的模型。 详细的模型验证是通过模型预测，可识别性检查和灵敏度分析进行的。 结果表明，badge到牛的传播比赫德之间的传播更为重要，如果没有the脚到赫德传播，爱尔兰牛群中的牛结核病水平可能会大大降低。
Bovine tuberculosis, a disease that affects cattle and badgers in Ireland, was studied via stochastic epidemic modeling using incidence data from the Four Area Project (Griffin et al., 2005). The Four Area Project was a large scale field trial conducted in four diverse farming regions of Ireland over a five-year period (1997-2002) to evaluate the impact of badger culling on bovine tuberculosis incidence in cattle herds. Based on the comparison of several models, the model with no between-herd transmission and badger-to-herd transmission proportional to the total number of infected badgers culled was best supported by the data. Detailed model validation was conducted via model prediction, identifiability checks and sensitivity analysis. The results suggest that badger-to-cattle transmission is of more importance than between-herd transmission and that if there was no badger-to-herd transmission, levels of bovine tuberculosis in cattle herds in Ireland could decrease considerably.
